Evidence mapPaperPMID 38264696Full record

ArticleEuropean heart journal. Digital health2024

Improving cardiovascular risk prediction through machine learning modelling of irregularly repeated electronic health records.

Chaiquan Li, Xiaofei Liu, Peng Shen, Yexiang Sun, Tianjing Zhou, Weiye Chen, Qi Chen, Hongbo Lin, Xun Tang, Pei Gao

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European heart journal. Digital health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07539532 (Value of Some Risk Scores in Predicting Cardiovascular Events After Gastrointestinal Surgery), which is not on this map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07539532 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

Value of Some Risk Scores in Predicting Cardiovascular Events After Gastrointestinal Surgery

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorBach Mai HospitalRan2026 to 2026Enrolled5,000ConditionsPostoperative Complications, Cardiovascular Diseases, Digestive System Surgical Procedures
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Observational
  6. Review
  7. Observational
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  11. Understanding health-related quality of life in Chinese infertility patients: a qualitative study.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2025
    Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
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  20. Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Patients on Direct Oral Anticoagulants.Clinical and applied thrombosis/hemostasis : official journal of the International Academy of Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/Hemostasis
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Chaiquan LiDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, No. 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, 100191 Beijing, China.
Xiaofei LiuDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, No. 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, 100191 Beijing, China.
Peng ShenYinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1221 Xueshi Road, Yinzhou District, 315199 Ningbo, China.
Yexiang SunYinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1221 Xueshi Road, Yinzhou District, 315199 Ningbo, China.
Tianjing ZhouDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, No. 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, 100191 Beijing, China.
Weiye ChenDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, No. 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, 100191 Beijing, China.
Qi ChenYinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1221 Xueshi Road, Yinzhou District, 315199 Ningbo, China.
Hongbo LinYinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 1221 Xueshi Road, Yinzhou District, 315199 Ningbo, China.
Xun TangDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, No. 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, 100191 Beijing, China.
Pei GaoDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, No. 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, 100191 Beijing, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8649-1290

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Aims: Existing electronic health records (EHRs) often consist of abundant but irregular longitudinal measurements of risk factors. In this study, we aim to leverage such data to improve the risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by applying machine learning (ML) algorithms, which can allow automatic screening of the population. Methods and results: A total of 215 744 Chinese adults aged between 40 and 79 without a history of cardiovascular disease were included (6081 cases) from an EHR-based longitudinal cohort study. To allow interpretability of the model, the predictors of demographic characteristics, medication treatment, and repeatedly measured records of lipids, glycaemia, obesity, blood pressure, and renal function were used. The primary outcome was ASCVD, defined as non-fatal acute myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal and non-fatal stroke. The eXtreme Gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression models were derived to predict the 5-year ASCVD risk. In the validation set, compared with the refitted Chinese guideline-recommended Cox model (i.e. the China-PAR), the XGBoost model had a significantly higher Conclusion: Machine learning algorithms with irregular, repeated real-world data could improve cardiovascular risk prediction. They demonstrated significantly better performance for reclassification to identify the high-risk population correctly.

Indexed as

PredictionPreventive CardiologyRisk

Identifiers

PMID38264696
PMCPMC10802828

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.