ArticleJournal of diabetes investigation2024
Type 1 and type 2 diabetes mortality burden: Predictions for 2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of China and global mortality burden from 1990 to 2019.
Article in Journal of diabetes investigation, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
- Diabetes Mellitus, a Leading Comorbidity in COVID-19: an Insight on Pathophysiology, Molecular Interactions, and Comprehensive Management.Current microbiology · 2025Pooled it
- Efficacy and safety of Qingre Lishi decoction for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Pooled it
- Shared Decision Making: Aids and Promotion in Clinical Practice Guidelines for Type 2 Diabetes Treatment.Journal of evaluation in clinical practice · 2026Article
- Optimal Exercise Type and Dose for Blood Pressure Improvement in Middle-Aged and Older Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Observational
- Long-term trends in disease burden of esophageal cancer in China and the forecast until 2050.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Determinants of In-Hospital Mortality Among Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus-Related Admissions in a Tertiary Teaching Hospital.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Genetic variants associated with glycemic and weight loss response to vildagliptin as add-on therapy to metformin in Egyptian obese type 2 diabetic patients: potential consequences on cardiac risk factors.European journal of medical research · 2026Article
- Impact of donor stress-induced hyperglycemia on early graft outcomes in simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation: a retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Association of prognostic nutritional index with the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes-related foot ulcers: a non-linear relationship mediated by eGFR.Frontiers in nutrition · 2026Article
- Burden of metabolic diseases in mainland China from 1990 to 2021: results from the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and National burden of hepatitis C from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2030.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Zinc and Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review with a Narrative Synthesis of Their Bidirectional Relationship and Clinical Perspectives for Personalized Nutritional Support.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Adherence to physical activity guidelines and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2025Article
- Economic burden, health burden and predictive analysis of diabetes attributed to non-optimal temperature in global from 1990 to 2030.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2025Article
- Burden, trends, driving factors, and predictions of gastric cancer: a cross-national comparative analysis of China, Japan, and South Korea.BMC cancer · 2025Article
- Investigating the Therapeutic Mechanisms of Shen-Ling-Bai-Zhu-San in Type 2 Diabetes and Ulcerative Colitis Comorbidity: A Network Pharmacology and Molecular Simulation Approach.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Global burden and prediction study of schizophrenia 1990-2030: comparison with China.BMC psychiatry · 2025Article
- Global pulmonary arterial hypertension trends and projections to 2046: a multi-method analysis of epidemiologic and demographic drivers using GBD 2021.Journal of thoracic disease · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimsThis study assessed diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, predicting the next decade's trends. MATERIALS AND
methodsData came from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for diabetes (type 1 and type 2) during 1990-2019 was calculated. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030.
resultsIn China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC -2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (AAPC -0.763) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, type 1 diabetes deaths increased from 55,417 to 78,236 cases (AAPC 0.223), and type 2 diabetes deaths increased from 606,407 to 1,472,934 cases (AAPC 0.365). Both China and global trends showed declining type 1 diabetes ASMR. However, female type 2 diabetes ASMR in China initially increased and then decreased, while males had a rebound trend. Peak type 1 diabetes deaths were in the 40-44 age group, and type 2 diabetes peaked in those over 70. BAPC predicted declining diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality burden in China and globally over the next 10 years.
conclusionsType 2 diabetes mortality remained high in China and globally despite decreasing type 1 diabetes mortality over 30 years. Predictions suggest a gradual decrease in diabetes mortality over the next decade, highlighting the need for continued focus on type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.