Mental distress, food insecurity and university student dropout during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: evidence from South Africa.

Background: Student dropout has been a key issue facing universities for many years. The COVID-19 pandemic was expected to exacerbate these trends; however, international literature has produced conflicting findings. Limited literature from Africa has investigated the impact of COVID-19 on student dropout trends, despite the documented devastation, including increased risk of food insecurity and mental distress, caused by the pandemic. Objective: This work seeks to understand the impact of food insecurity and mental distress on student dropout during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Using a cross-sectional research design, first-year undergraduate students from a large South African university were recruited via email to participate in a survey between September and October 2020. The Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) was used to measure food insecurity and the Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety and Depression Scale (PHQ-ADS) was used to measure mental distress. Multivariate regression was used to investigate factors associated with student dropout. Results: The student dropout rate was 10.5% (95% CI: 8.2-13.2). The prevalence of severe food insecurity was 25.7% (95% CI: 22.3-29.4) and the prevalence of severe mental distress symptoms was 26.7% (95% CI: 23.3-30.4). Dropout rates and levels of food insecurity were highest among students residing in remote areas during the lockdown at 19.2% and 43.6%, respectively. The multivariate logistic regression revealed that being male increased the probability of dropout almost three-fold (odds ratio (OR) = 2.70; 95% CI: 1.48-4.89, p =0.001)). Being moderately food insecure increased the odds of dropout more than two-fold (OR=2.50; 95% CI:1.12-5.55, p=0.025), and experiencing severe mental distress symptoms increased the odds of dropout seven-fold (OR=7.08; 95% CI:2.67-18.81, p<0.001). Conclusion: While acknowledging that various factors and complexities contribute to student dropout, the increased vulnerability to food insecurity and mental distress, stemming from issues such as widespread job losses and isolation experienced during the pandemic, may have also had an impact on dropout. This work reiterates the importance of directing additional support to students who are food insecure and those who are experiencing mental distress in order to mitigate university student dropout.