ArticleJournal of global health2024
The trend of AIDS in China: A prediction and comparative analysis with G20 countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Article in Journal of global health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Paradoxical Trends in Hypertensive Heart Disease: Rising Burden in High-Sociodemographic-Index Regions Despite Healthcare Quality-An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis, 1992-2021.Journal of cardiovascular development and disease · 2026Article
- Heterogeneous longitudinal trajectories of sense of coherence and associated characteristics among newly diagnosed HIV-positive men who have sex with men: A cohort study.International journal of nursing sciences · 2026Article
- Mortality trends and epidemiological characteristics among people living with HIV in Huangshi, China: a time-series analysis (2004-2024).BMC public health · 2026Article
- The prognosis characteristics of HIV/HBV co-infection after antiviral therapy: a comprehensive review.Infectious agents and cancer · 2026Review
- Pretreatment drug resistance profiles and transmission dynamics of HIV-1 among adults aged ≥50 in Hebei Province, China.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Article
- Forecasting monthly AIDS incidence in China via LSTM-CNN parallel fusion: a comparative study of 10 predictive models.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Temporal Trend and Health Inequality in the Burden of Autoimmune Diseases Among Older Adolescents and Young Adults Aged 15-29 Years.Archives of rheumatology · 2025Article
- Trends in burden and mortality of congenital birth defects in G20 countries (1990-2021) and predictions for 2022-2040.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Article
- Development and Feasibility of "Towards the Sun": A Digital Salutogenic Intervention to Enhance Sense of Coherence and Health Outcomes Among Newly Diagnosed HIV-Positive MSM.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: In China, AIDS has become the most severe notifiable infectious disease. The study aimed to analyse and predict the trend of AIDS in China and compared with Group of Twenty (G20) countries. Methods: We utilised incidence, mortality or disability-adjusted life years (DALY), age-standardised rates (ASR), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) to estimate the trend via GBD 2019. The Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to identify the most significant years of change. We explored the relationship between AAPC and social development index (SDI) or health care access and quality (HAQ), and predicted trends for the next 20 years. Results: The DALY in G20 increase of 340.42%, and 794.50% in China. The age-standardised DALY rate (ASDR) in G20 was 309.49 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 284.69, 350.58) in 2019, with an AAPC of 4.30. Among G20, the United States had the highest DALY in 1990, but it experienced a significant decline. In China, the ASDR was 98.15 (95% UI = 78.78, 119.58) with the 5th AAPC ranking. In term of gender, the incidence, mortality, DALY, and ASR of them in China and G20 were all higher in males. Furthermore, the gender gap in China had been widening. The most significant periods of ASDR increase in China were 1990-1995 and 2013-2016, and 1990-1994 in G20. The prediction for DALY indicated that high SDI countries were expected to exhibit a stable or declining trend, while low SDI countries showed an upward trend. China demonstrated a 57.66% increase in 2040 compared to 2019. Conclusions: AIDS continues to be a significant burden. In China, the ASIR exhibited a decline trend in certain age groups, while the ASMR and ASDR continued to increase, with a widening gender disparity. In addition, according to our predict results, some countries could not achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development set by the UNAIDS. Therefore, it is necessary to establish more effective and targeted measures, as well as actively explore new treatment approaches.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.