Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38486473›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical screening2024

Comparing screening based on the NHS Health Check and Polypill Prevention Programmes in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes.

Nicholas J Wald, Aroon D Hingorani, Stephen H Vale, Jonathan P Bestwick, Joan Morris

Open access · hybridAbstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical screening, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
3.8field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. A secret medicine.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2024
    Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Nicholas J WaldInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1676-5908
Aroon D HingoraniInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.
Stephen H ValeLogical Medical Systems, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6000-3746
Jonathan P BestwickCentre for Preventive Neurology, Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3088-8616
Joan MorrisPopulation Health Research Institute, St Georges University of London, London, UK.
St George's, University of London · GBQueen Mary University of London · GBUniversity College London · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo compare the NHS Health Check Programme with the Polypill Prevention Programme in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes.

designUse of published data and methodology to produce flow charts of the two programmes to determine screening performance and heart attacks and strokes prevented.

settingThe UK population.

interventionThe NHS Health Check Programme using a QRISK score on people aged 40-74 to select those eligible for a statin is compared with the Polypill Prevention Programme in people aged 50 or more to select people for a combination of a statin and three low-dose blood pressure lowering agents. In both programmes, people had no history of heart attack or stroke.

main outcome measuresIn 1000 people, the number of heart attacks and strokes prevented in the two programmes.

resultsIn the hypothetical perfect situation with 100% uptake and adherence to the screening protocol, in every 1000 persons, the NHS Health Check would prevent 287 cases of a heart attack or stroke in individuals who would gain on average about 4 years of life without a heart attack or stroke amounting to 1148 years in total, the precise gain depending on the extent of treatment for those with raised blood pressure, and 136 would be prescribed statins with no benefit. The corresponding figures for the Polypill Prevention Programme are 316 individuals who would, on average, gain 8 years of life without a heart attack or stroke, amounting to 2528 years in total, and 260 prescribed the polypill with no benefit. Based on published estimates of uptake and adherence in the NHS Health Check Programme, in practice only 24 cases per 1000 are currently benefitting instead of 287, amounting to 96 years gained without a heart attack or stroke.

conclusionsThe Polypill Prevention Programme is by design simpler with the potential of preventing many more heart attacks and strokes than the NHS Health Check Programme.

Indexed as

Mass ScreeningMyocardial InfarctionStrokeAdultAgedAntihypertensive AgentsFemaleHumansHydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase InhibitorsMaleMiddle AgedPrimary PreventionState MedicineUnited KingdomAntihypertensive AgentsHydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitorsheart attacksNHS Health CheckpolypillScreeningstrokes

Identifiers

PMID38486473
PMCPMC11083722
OpenAlexW4392854764

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.