Evidence mapPaperPMID 38641741Full record

ReviewNature medicine2024

Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes.

Stefan Feuerriegel, Dennis Frauen, Valentyn Melnychuk, Jonas Schweisthal, Konstantin Hess, Alicia Curth, Stefan Bauer, Niki Kilbertus, Isaac S Kohane, Mihaela van der Schaar

Abstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 123 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
123citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

123 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Causal inference in the diagnosis and prognosis of ovarian cancer: current state and future directions.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2025
    Pooled it
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  10. Causal graph neural networks for healthcare.Nature biomedical engineering · 2026
    Review
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63 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Stefan FeuerriegelLMU Munich, Munich, Germany. feuerriegel@lmu.de.ORCID 0000-0001-7856-8729
Dennis FrauenLMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
Valentyn MelnychukLMU Munich, Munich, Germany.
Jonas SchweisthalLMU Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-3725-3821
Konstantin HessLMU Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0009-0003-8552-6588
Alicia CurthDepartment of Applied Mathematics & Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Stefan BauerSchool of Computation, Information and Technology, TU Munich, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-1712-060X
Niki KilbertusMunich Center for Machine Learning, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-8718-4305
Isaac S KohaneDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Mihaela van der SchaarCambridge Centre for AI in Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Funding

Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) 186932
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for estimating individualized treatment effects, so that clinical decision-making can be personalized to individual patient profiles. Causal ML can be used in combination with both clinical trial data and real-world data, such as clinical registries and electronic health records, but caution is needed to avoid biased or incorrect predictions. In this Perspective, we discuss the benefits of causal ML (relative to traditional statistical or ML approaches) and outline the key components and steps. Finally, we provide recommendations for the reliable use of causal ML and effective translation into the clinic.

Indexed as

Clinical Decision-MakingMachine LearningCausalityElectronic Health RecordsHumansTreatment Outcome

Identifiers

PMID38641741

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.