Prediction of Overall Disease Burden in (y)pN1 Breast Cancer Using Knowledge-Based Machine Learning Model.

backgroundWe aimed to construct an expert knowledge-based Bayesian network (BN) model for assessing the overall disease burden (ODB) in (y)pN1 breast cancer patients and compare ODB across arms of ongoing trials.

methodsUtilizing institutional data and expert surveys, we developed a BN model for (y)pN1 breast cancer. Expert-derived probabilities and disability weights for radiotherapy-related benefit (e.g., 7-year disease-free survival [DFS]) and toxicities were integrated into the model. ODB was defined as the sum of disability weights multiplied by probabilities. In silico predictions were conducted for Alliance A011202, PORT-N1, RAPCHEM, and RT-CHARM trials, comparing ODB, 7-year DFS, and side effects.

resultsIn the Alliance A011202 trial, 7-year DFS was 80.1% in both arms. Axillary lymph node dissection led to higher clinical lymphedema and ODB compared to sentinel lymph node biopsy with full regional nodal irradiation (RNI). In the PORT-N1 trial, the control arm (whole-breast irradiation [WBI] with RNI or post-mastectomy radiotherapy [PMRT]) had an ODB of 0.254, while the experimental arm (WBI alone or no PMRT) had an ODB of 0.255. In the RAPCHEM trial, the radiotherapy field did not impact the 7-year DFS in ypN1 patients. However, there was a mild ODB increase with a larger irradiation field. In the RT-CHARM trial, we identified factors associated with the major complication rate, which ranged from 18.3% to 22.1%.

conclusionsThe expert knowledge-based BN model predicted ongoing trial outcomes, validating reported results and assumptions. In addition, the model demonstrated the ODB in different arms, with an emphasis on quality of life.