Association of the longitudinal trajectory of urinary albumin/creatinine ratio in diabetic patients with adverse cardiac event risk: a retrospective cohort study.

Objective: The baseline urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR) has been proven to be significantly associated with the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). However, data on the association between the longitudinal trajectory patterns of uACR, changes in glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and the subsequent risk of MACE in patients with diabetes are sparse. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study including 601 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM; uACR < 300 mg/g) admitted to The First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University and The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from January 2015 to December 2018. The uACR index was calculated as urinary albumin (in milligrams)/creatinine (in grams), and latent mixed modeling was used to identify the longitudinal trajectory of uACR during the exposure period (2016-2020). The deadline for follow-up was December 31, 2021. The primary outcome was the MACE [a composite outcome of cardiogenic death, hospitalization related to heart failure (HHF), non-fatal acute myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and acute renal injury/dialysis indications]. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis curve was used to compare the risk of MACE among four groups, while univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were employed to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for MACE risk among different uACR or HbA1c trajectory groups. The predictive performance of the model, both before and after the inclusion of changes in the uACR and HbA1c, was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results: Four distinct uACR trajectories were identified, namely, the low-stable group (uACR = 5.2-38.3 mg/g, Conclusion: A long-term elevated uACR is associated with a significantly increased risk of MACE in patients with diabetes. This study implies that regular monitoring of uACR could be helpful in identifying diabetic patients with a higher risk of MACE.