Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38765187›Full record

ArticleJACC. Advances2024

Cardiometabolic Disease Staging and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event Prediction in 2 Prospective Cohorts.

Carrie R Howell, Li Zhang, Tapan Mehta, Lua Wilkinson, April P Carson, Emily B Levitan, Andrea L Cherrington, Nengjun Yi, W Timothy Garvey

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JACC. Advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  8. Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists: Their Potential Role in Prediabetes.Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Carrie R HowellDivision of Preventive Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.
Li ZhangDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.
Tapan MehtaFamily and Community Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.
Lua WilkinsonMedical Affairs, Novo Nordisk Inc, Plainsboro, New Jersey, USA.
April P CarsonDepartment of Medicine, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, Mississippi, USA.
Emily B LevitanDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.
Andrea L CherringtonDivision of Preventive Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.
Nengjun YiDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.
W Timothy GarveyDepartment of Nutrition Sciences, School of Health Professions, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.

Funding

VCID and Stroke in a Bi-racial National CohortU01NS041588 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI CUSHMAN, MARY, HOWARD, GEORGE · 2002 to 2022
$96.0M
Why is the prevalence of obesity so high in U.S. Southern States? Regional predictors of BMI and obesity treatment response.P30DK056336 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI BARBARA A GOWER · 2000 to 2026
$31.9M
University of Alabama at Birmingham's Diabetes Research CenterP30DK079626 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI BARBARA A GOWER · 2013 to 2026
$19.5M
REGARDS - MI StudyR01HL080477 · NHLBI · WEILL MEDICAL COLL OF CORNELL UNIV · PI LEVITAN, EMILY B, SAFFORD, MONIKA M · 2006 to 2020
$11.6M
REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke-Myocardial Infarction-4 (REGARDS-MI-4)R01HL165452 · NHLBI · WEILL MEDICAL COLL OF CORNELL UNIV · PI LEVITAN, EMILY B, SAFFORD, MONIKA M · 2022 to 2025
$8.3M
Harnessing social determinant of health data to identify and engage high risk, socially vulnerable populations for diabetes preventionK01MD017270 · NIMHD · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI HOWELL, CARRIE R. · 2022 to 2025
$513k
American Heart Association-American Stroke Association 931540NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL080477NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL165452NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK056336NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK079626NIMHD NIH HHS K01 MD017270NINDS NIH HHS U01 NS041588
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCardiometabolic risk prediction models that incorporate metabolic syndrome traits to predict cardiovascular outcomes may help identify high-risk populations early in the progression of cardiometabolic disease.

objectivesThe purpose of this study was to examine whether a modified cardiometabolic disease staging (CMDS) system, a validated diabetes prediction model, predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

methodsWe developed a predictive model using data accessible in clinical practice [fasting glucose, blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, triglycerides, smoking status, diabetes status, hypertension medication use] from the REGARDS (REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke) study to predict MACE [cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and/or nonfatal stroke]. Predictive performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, mean squared errors, misclassification, and area under the curve (AUC) statistics.

resultsAmong 20,234 REGARDS participants with no history of stroke or myocardial infarction (mean age 64 ± 9.3 years, 58% female, 41% non-Hispanic Black, and 18% diabetes), 2,695 developed incident MACE (13.3%) during a median 10-year follow-up. The CMDS development model in REGARDS for MACE had an AUC of 0.721. Our CMDS model performed similarly to both the ACC/AHA 10-year risk estimate (AUC 0.721 vs 0.716) and the Framingham risk score (AUC 0.673).

conclusionsThe CMDS predicted the onset of MACE with good predictive ability and performed similarly or better than 2 commonly known cardiovascular disease prediction risk tools. These data underscore the importance of insulin resistance as a cardiovascular disease risk factor and that CMDS can be used to identify individuals at high risk for progression to cardiovascular disease.

Indexed as

cardiometabolic diseasecardiovascular eventsrisk stratification

Identifiers

PMID38765187
PMCPMC11101198

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.