Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38828126›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of preventive cardiology2024

Health economic analysis of polygenic risk score use in primary prevention of coronary artery disease - A system dynamics model.

Stephen T Vernon, Stuart Brentnall, Danielle J Currie, Cindy Peng, Michael P Gray, Giordano Botta, Deo Mujwara, Stephen J Nicholls, Stuart M Grieve, Julie Redfern and 7 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of preventive cardiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Review
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Stephen T VernonCardiovascular Discovery Group, Kolling Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney, Australia.
Stuart BrentnallDecision Analytics, The SAX Institute, Sydney, Australia.
Danielle J CurrieDecision Analytics, The SAX Institute, Sydney, Australia.
Cindy PengDecision Analytics, The SAX Institute, Sydney, Australia.
Michael P GrayCardiovascular Discovery Group, Kolling Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney, Australia.
Giordano BottaAllelica Inc, New York, United States.
Deo MujwaraAllelica Inc, New York, United States.
Stephen J NichollsMonash Cardiovascular Research Centre, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Stuart M GrieveImaging and Phenotyping Laboratory, Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Julie RedfernSchool of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Clara ChowWestmead Applied Research Centre (C.K.C.), University of Sydney, Australia.
Jean-Frederic LevesqueNSW Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Peter J MeikleBaker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Garry JenningsUniversity of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Zanfina AdemiCentre for Medicine Use and Safety, Faculty of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Andrew WilsonMenzies Centre for Health Policy and Economics, Faculty of Medicine and Health, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Gemma A FigtreeCardiovascular Discovery Group, Kolling Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Primary prevention programs utilising traditional risk scores fail to identify all individuals who suffer acute cardiovascular events. We aimed to model the impact and cost effectiveness of incorporating a Polygenic risk scores (PRS) into the cardiovascular disease CVD primary prevention program in Australia, using a whole-of-system model. Methods: System dynamics models, encompassing acute and chronic CVD care in the Australian healthcare setting, assessing the cost-effectiveness of incorporating a CAD-PRS in the primary prevention setting. The time horizon was 10-years. Results: Pragmatically incorporating a CAD-PRS in the Australian primary prevention setting in middle-aged individuals already attending a Heart Health Check (HHC) who are determined to be at low or moderate risk based on the 5-year Framingham risk score (FRS), with conservative assumptions regarding uptake of PRS, could have prevented 2, 052 deaths over 10-years, and resulted in 24, 085 QALYs gained at a cost of $19, 945 per QALY with a net benefit of $724 million. If all Australians overs the age of 35 years old had their FRS and PRS performed, and acted upon, 12, 374 deaths and 60, 284 acute coronary events would be prevented, with 183, 682 QALYs gained at a cost of $18, 531 per QALY, with a net benefit of $5, 780 million. Conclusions: Incorporating a CAD-PRS in a contemporary primary prevention setting in Australia would result in substantial health and societal benefits and is cost-effective. The broader the uptake of CAD-PRS in the primary prevention setting in middle-aged Australians, the greater the impact and the more cost-effective the strategy.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular diseaseCoronary artery diseaseHealth economicsPolygenic risk score

Identifiers

PMID38828126
PMCPMC11143886

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.