Evidence mapPaperPMID 38889124Full record

ArticlePloS one2024

The potential of the transformer-based survival analysis model, SurvTrace, for predicting recurrent cardiovascular events and stratifying high-risk patients with ischemic heart disease.

Hiroki Shinohara, Satoshi Kodera, Yugo Nagae, Takashi Hiruma, Atsushi Kobayashi, Masataka Sato, Shinnosuke Sawano, Tatsuya Kamon, Koichi Narita, Kazutoshi Hirose and 9 more

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Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Hiroki ShinoharaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5903-8244
Satoshi KoderaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2908-6875
Yugo NagaeDepartment of Planning, Information and Management, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0458-0781
Takashi HirumaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4873-9029
Atsushi KobayashiDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Masataka SatoDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Shinnosuke SawanoDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Tatsuya KamonDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Koichi NaritaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Kazutoshi HiroseDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Hiroyuki KiriyamaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Akihito SaitoDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Mizuki MiuraDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3252-3861
Shun MinatsukiDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Hironobu KikuchiDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1324-6424
Norifumi TakedaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4818-3347
Hiroshi AkazawaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3574-9607
Hiroyuki MoritaDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Issei KomuroDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionIschemic heart disease is a leading cause of death worldwide, and its importance is increasing with the aging population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of SurvTrace, a survival analysis model using the Transformer-a state-of-the-art deep learning method-for predicting recurrent cardiovascular events and stratifying high-risk patients. The model's performance was compared to that of a conventional scoring system utilizing real-world data from cardiovascular patients.

methodsThis study consecutively enrolled patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Tokyo Hospital, between 2005 and 2019. Each patient's initial PCI at our hospital was designated as the index procedure, and a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was monitored for up to two years post-index event. Data regarding patient background, clinical presentation, medical history, medications, and perioperative complications were collected to predict MACE. The performance of two models-a conventional scoring system proposed by Wilson et al. and the Transformer-based model SurvTrace-was evaluated using Harrell's c-index, Kaplan-Meier curves, and log-rank tests.

resultsA total of 3938 cases were included in the study, with 394 used as the test dataset and the remaining 3544 used for model training. SurvTrace exhibited a mean c-index of 0.72 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.69-0.76), which indicated higher prognostic accuracy compared with the conventional scoring system's 0.64 (95% CI: 0.64-0.64). Moreover, SurvTrace demonstrated superior risk stratification ability, effectively distinguishing between the high-risk group and other risk categories in terms of event occurrence. In contrast, the conventional system only showed a significant difference between the low-risk and high-risk groups.

conclusionThis study based on real-world cardiovascular patient data underscores the potential of the Transformer-based survival analysis model, SurvTrace, for predicting recurrent cardiovascular events and stratifying high-risk patients.

Indexed as

Myocardial IschemiaAgedDeep LearningFemaleHumansKaplan-Meier EstimateMaleMiddle AgedPercutaneous Coronary InterventionPrognosisRecurrenceRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSurvival Analysis

Identifiers

PMID38889124
PMCPMC11185454

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.