Trial reportDiabetes care2024
Effect of Semaglutide on Regression and Progression of Glycemia in People With Overweight or Obesity but Without Diabetes in the SELECT Trial.
Trial report in Diabetes care, 2024. The graph read 1 number from its abstract, feeding 1 cell of the map, but none could be read as for or against, so it casts no vote. It is linked to trial NCT07654062 (Efficacy and Safety of Mazdutide in Adults With Prediabetes), which is not on this map. Cited by 44 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
Read, but not usablea number the graph found but could not read as for or against
Thereafter, HbA1c increased similarly in both arms, with a mean difference of -0.32 percentage points (95% CI -0.33 to -0.30; -3.49 mmol/mol [-3.66 to -3.32]) and with the difference favoring semaglutide throughout the study (P < 0.0001).
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Where it lands on the map
Rows are treatments, columns are outcomes. The coloured squares are the cells this paper feeds, coloured by the vote it casts there. Click one to jump to what this paper adds to it.
What it adds to each cell
For every cell the paper feeds: the belief in the claim with and without this paper, and this paper's estimate drawn against every other readable study in the cell. The ringed dot is this paper.
GLP-1 receptor agonists×glycemic control
No readable resultOpen on the map →What to test next →40 readable studies in this cell: 97 favour the treatment, 16 find no difference, 10 favour the comparator.
This paper's own estimate is on a different scale from the rest of the cell, so it is not drawn here.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Efficacy and Safety of Mazdutide in Adults With Prediabetes: A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial (DREAM-PRE)
Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Intervening Early in the Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome: Expert Recommendations from the United Arab Emirates on the Management of Prediabetes.Vascular health and risk management · 2026Guideline
- Effectiveness of GLP-1 RAs and SGLT2 inhibitors in preventing T2DM in high-risk patients: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in clinical diabetes and healthcare · 2025Pooled it
- Semaglutide versus placebo in individuals with poor weight loss after bariatric surgery: a double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.Nature medicine · 2026Trial
- Effect of Semaglutide on Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Adolescents With Obesity: The STEP TEENS Study.Diabetes care · 2026Trial
- Semaglutide on liver fibrosis and heart outcomes in patients at high risk of liver fibrosis: a prespecified analysis of the SELECT randomized trial.Nature medicine · 2026 · on this mapTrial
- Prevention of type 2 diabetes through prediabetes remission without weight loss.Nature medicine · 2025Trial
- Long-term effects and effect heterogeneity of lifestyle and metformin interventions on type 2 diabetes incidence over 21 years in the US Diabetes Prevention Program randomised clinical trial.The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology · 2025Trial
- Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes by Baseline HbA1c and Change in HbA1c in People With Overweight or Obesity but Without Diabetes in SELECT.Diabetes care · 2024Trial
- Causes and consequences of discontinuation of GLP1RAs or tirzepatide.Nature reviews. Endocrinology · 2026Review
- Trends in Prevalence of Diabetes, Pre-Diabetes, and Cardiometabolic Risk Factor Control Among U.S. Adults, 2013-2023.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- Proteomic Signatures of 3-Year Progression From Impaired Fasting Glucose to Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.Diabetes care · 2026Article
- Survivorship Challenges in Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the Era of Prolonged Survival: A Review.Cancers · 2026Review
- Reversion to normoglycemia with tirzepatide vs semaglutide in participants with obesity and prediabetes: a post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT-5.Journal of endocrinological investigation · 2026Article
- β-cell recovery revisited: Is prediabetes remission driven by insulin sensitivity or β-cell function?Journal of diabetes investigation · 2026Article
- Preventing obesity-related cancer with the revolution in obesity management: the challenges of undertaking a clinical trial and potential solutions.British journal of cancer · 2026Review
- Semaglutide restores metabolic and structural homeostasis along the gut-heart-metabolic axis in a cafeteria diet-induced obesity model.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A Narrative Review of the Metabolic Benefits of GLP-1 and GIP Receptor Agonists in Obesity.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- GLP-1 and the cardiovascular system.The Journal of clinical investigation · 2026Review
- Incretin Mimetics in Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease: JACC: CardioOncology State-of-the-Art Review.JACC. CardioOncology · 2026Review
- Progression to type 2 diabetes among post-myocardial infarction patients with overweight or obesity: a real-world cohort study.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2026Observational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
20 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The marked sentences are the ones the graph read a number from.
objectiveTo determine whether semaglutide slows progression of glycemia in people with cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity but without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsIn a multicenter, double-blind trial, participants aged ≥45 years, with BMI ≥27 kg/m2, and with preexisting cardiovascular disease but without diabetes (HbA1c <6.5%) were randomized to receive subcutaneous semaglutide (2.4 mg weekly) or placebo. Major glycemic outcomes were HbA1c and proportions achieving biochemical normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7%) and progressing to biochemical diabetes (HbA1c ≥6.5%).
resultsOf 17,604 participants, 8,803 were assigned to semaglutide and 8,801 to placebo. Mean ± SD intervention exposure was 152 ± 56 weeks and follow-up 176 ± 40 weeks. In both treatment arms mean nadir HbA1c for participants was at 20 weeks. Thereafter, HbA1c increased similarly in both arms, with a mean difference of -0.32 percentage points (95% CI -0.33 to -0.30; -3.49 mmol/mol [-3.66 to -3.32]) and with the difference favoring semaglutide throughout the study (P < 0.0001). Body weight plateaued at 65 weeks and was 8.9% lower with semaglutide. At week 156, a greater proportion treated with semaglutide were normoglycemic (69.5% vs. 35.8%; P < 0.0001) and a smaller proportion had biochemical diabetes by week 156 (1.5% vs. 6.9%; P < 0.0001). The number needed to treat was 18.5 to prevent a case of diabetes. Both regression and progression were dependent on glycemia at baseline, with the magnitude of weight reduction important in mediating 24.5% of progression and 27.1% of regression.
conclusionsIn people with preexisting cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity but without diabetes, long-term semaglutide increases regression to biochemical normoglycemia and reduces progression to biochemical diabetes but does not slow glycemic progression over time.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.