ArticleEuropean journal of nutrition2024
Modelling impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, BMI and environmental footprints in the UK population.
Article in European journal of nutrition, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeTaxes on unhealthy foods can help improve population health in the United Kingdom (UK), but the health effects of food substitutions resulting from these taxes are often unclear. We investigated the potential impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, cost, body-mass index (BMI), and environmental footprints.
methodsPurchase panel data from Kantar (2017) were used to determine the most popular foods high in salt or sugar within eight 'salt-intensive'/'sugar-intensive' food categories. Within food categories, the most popular lower salt (≤ 1.5 g salt/100 g product) and lower sugar (≤ 22.5 g sugar/100 g product) substitutes were also identified. Hypothetical swaps between high salt/sugar foods and lower salt/sugar substitutes were explored, focusing on changes to cost, caloric intake and BMI, and environmental impacts in the UK population.
resultsThe suggested intra-category substitutions were largely like-for-like and did not accrue an added overall cost to consumers. The substitutions reduced calorie intake by about 200 kcal/day and lowered the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK from approximately 60-65% to about 40-45%. The proposed food substitutions led to a total reduction of -2.7Mt of greenhouse gases, ∼ -500.000 ha of land, -0.5km
conclusionFood substitutions following a tax on salt and sugar could lead to significant benefits for health and the environment, without necessarily resulting in major changes to people's expenditure on familiar salty and sugary snacks.
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