Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38964793›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2024

Impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination strategy in Brazil: an ecological study.

Soraida Aguilar, Leonardo S L Bastos, Paula Maçaira, Fernanda Baião, Paulo Simões, José Cerbino-Neto, Otavio Ranzani, Silvio Hamacher, Fernando A Bozza

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Soraida AguilarDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5177-8336
Leonardo S L BastosDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-7833-0403
Paula MaçairaDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-6235-8006
Fernanda BaiãoDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Paulo SimõesDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
José Cerbino-NetoEvandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-9254-917X
Otavio RanzaniBarcelona Institute for Global Health, ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic-Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Silvio HamacherDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Fernando A BozzaEvandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil bozza.fernando@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0003-4878-0256

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesNo consensus exists about the best COVID-19 vaccination strategy to be adopted by low-income and middle-income countries. Brazil adopted an age-based calendar strategy to reduce mortality and the burden on the healthcare system. This study evaluates the impact of the vaccination campaign in Brazil on the progression of the reported COVID-19 deaths.

methodsThis ecological study analyses the dynamic of vaccination coverage and COVID-19 deaths in hospitalised adults (≥20 years) during the first year of the COVID-19 vaccination roll-out (January to December 2021) using nationwide data (DATASUS). We stratified the adult population into 20-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70+ years. The dynamic effect of the vaccination campaign on mortality rates was estimated by applying a negative binomial regression. The prevented and possible preventable deaths (observed deaths higher than expected) and potential years of life lost (PYLL) for each age group were obtained in a counterfactual analysis.

resultsDuring the first year of COVID-19 vaccination, 266 153 517 doses were administered, achieving 91% first-dose coverage. A total of 380 594 deaths were reported, 154 091 (40%) in 70+ years and 136 804 (36%) from 50-59 or 20-49 years. The mortality rates of 70+ decreased by 52% (rate ratio [95% CI]: 0.48 [0.43-0.53]) in 6 months, whereas rates for 20-49 were still increasing due to low coverage (52%). The vaccination roll-out strategy prevented 59 618 deaths, 53 088 (89%) from those aged 70+ years. However, the strategy did not prevent 54 797 deaths, 85% from those under 60 years, being 26 344 (45%) only in 20-49, corresponding to 1 589 271 PYLL, being 1 080 104 PYLL (68%) from those aged 20-49 years.

conclusionThe adopted aged-based calendar vaccination strategy initially reduced mortality in the oldest but did not prevent the deaths of the youngest as effectively as compared with the older age group. Countries with a high burden, limited vaccine supply and young populations should consider other factors beyond the age to prioritise who should be vaccinated first.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesSARS-CoV-2AdultAgedBrazilFemaleHumansImmunization ProgramsMaleMiddle AgedVaccinationVaccination CoverageYoung AdultCOVID-19 VaccinesCOVID-19EPIDEMIOLOGYPublic health

Identifiers

PMID38964793
PMCPMC11227766

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.