Step Forward Cross Validation for Bioactivity Prediction: Out of Distribution Validation in Drug Discovery.

Recent advances in machine learning methods for materials science have significantly enhanced accurate predictions of the properties of novel materials. Here, we explore whether these advances can be adapted to drug discovery by addressing the problem of prospective validation - the assessment of the performance of a method on out-of-distribution data. First, we tested whether k-fold n-step forward cross-validation could improve the accuracy of out-of-distribution small molecule bioactivity predictions. We found that it is more helpful than conventional random split cross-validation in describing the accuracy of a model in real-world drug discovery settings. We also analyzed discovery yield and novelty error, finding that these two metrics provide an understanding of the applicability domain of models and an assessment of their ability to predict molecules with desirable bioactivity compared to other small molecules. Based on these results, we recommend incorporating a k-fold n-step forward cross-validation and these metrics when building state-of-the-art models for bioactivity prediction in drug discovery.