Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39073512›Full record

ArticleClinical rheumatology2024

Trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis in China: a systematic analysis based on GBD 2021 data.

Haiping Gu, Dandan Yan, Ju Li, Xianming Long, Kai Wang

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical rheumatology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. Context-dependent roles of 11β-HSD1 in bone and skeletal muscle diseases.American journal of translational research · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Haiping GuDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215000, China.
Dandan YanDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, 223001, China.
Ju LiDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, 223001, China.
Xianming LongDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215000, China. 15862368438@163.com.
Kai WangDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, 223001, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0511-8038

Funding

Huaian Key laboratory of autoimmune diseases HAP202302Suzhou "Kejiaoxingwei" Youth Science and Technology project KJXW2020004The Nanjing Medical University Science and Technology Development Fund NMUB20220207
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in China from 1990 to 2021 by analyzing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study and to predict the trends for the next 25 years. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated, and the estimated annual percentage change was used to illustrate differences in age distribution among various populations. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were employed to forecast the burden of RA in China from 2022 to 2046. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR of RA in China increased from 11.6 to 13.7, with a significantly higher ASIR in females than in males. Despite the increase in incidence, the ASMR related to RA decreased from 0.7 to 0.5. Predictions using the BAPC model indicate that the incidence of RA will continue to rise, with an expected ASIR of approximately 16.4 by 2046, and the total number of RA cases is projected to reach around 342,000. In terms of mortality, the ASMR is expected to decline to 0.3 by 2046, although the total number of deaths might reach about 40,000. The incidence of RA in China has significantly increased over the past 30 years. Although the incidence rate and the total number of RA cases may continue to rise in the future, the mortality rate of RA has been consistently declining. Key Points • Over the past 30 years, the incidence of RA in China has significantly increased; although the incidence rate and total number of cases may continue to rise, the mortality rate has been consistently declining.

Indexed as

Arthritis, RheumatoidAdultAgedAge DistributionBayes TheoremChinaFemaleForecastingGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedMortalityYoung AdultChinaDisease burdenEpidemiologyRheumatoid arthritis

Identifiers

PMID39073512

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.