Evidence mapPaperPMID 39097298Full record

ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2024

Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling.

Asalah Alareeki, Susanne F Awad, Adhra Al-Mawali, Magdi Morsi, Julia A Critchley, Jawad A Al-Lawati, Laith J Abu-Raddad

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Asalah AlareekiInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu aja4006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-8555-4878
Susanne F AwadInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar.ORCID 0000-0002-5060-7404
Adhra Al-MawaliQuality Assurance and Planning, German University of Technology in Oman, Athaibah, Muscat, Oman.
Magdi MorsiCentre of Studies & Research, Government of Oman Ministry of Health, Muscat, Masqat, Oman.
Julia A CritchleyPopulation Health Research Institute, Saint George's University, Saint George, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5248-4188
Jawad A Al-LawatiDirectorate General of Primary Health Care, Government of Oman Ministry of Health, Muscat, Masqat, Oman.
Laith J Abu-RaddadInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha, Qatar lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu aja4006@qatar-med.cornell.edu.ORCID 0000-0003-0790-0506

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionTo estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman. RESEARCH DESIGN AND

methodsA deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050.

resultsIn the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO's Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%-50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%-51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%-53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%-35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%-50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%-14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%-13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%-9.6% by 2050.

conclusionsIntervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2ExerciseModels, TheoreticalObesitySedentary BehaviorSmokingAdultAgedCost of IllnessFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedOmanDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2EpidemiologyObesityPrevention

Identifiers

PMID39097298
PMCPMC12452404

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.