Machine learning developed a macrophage signature for predicting prognosis, immune infiltration and immunotherapy features in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Macrophages played an important role in the progression and treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We employed weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) to identify macrophage-related genes (MRGs) and classify patients with HNSCC into two distinct subtypes. A macrophage-related risk signature (MRS) model, comprising nine genes: IGF2BP2, PPP1R14C, SLC7A5, KRT9, RAC2, NTN4, CTLA4, APOC1, and CYP27A1, was formulated by integrating 101 machine learning algorithm combinations. We observed lower overall survival (OS) in the high-risk group and the high-risk group showed elevated expression levels in most of the immune checkpoint and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes, suggesting a strong immune evasion capacity. Correspondingly, TIDE score positively correlated with risk score, implying that high-risk tumors may resist immunotherapy more effectively. At the single-cell level, we noted macrophages in the tumor microenvironment (TME) predominantly stalled in the G2/M phase, potentially hindering epithelial-mesenchymal transition and playing a crucial role in the inhibition of tumor progression. Finally, the proliferation and migration abilities of HNSCC cells significantly decreased after the expression of IGF2BP2 and SLC7A5 reduced. It also decreased migration ability of macrophages and facilitated their polarization towards the M1 direction. Our study constructed a novel MRS for HNSCC, which could serve as an indicator for predicting the prognosis, immune infiltration and immunotherapy for HNSCC patients.