Establishment and validation of a predictive nomogram for central venous catheter-related thrombosis in cancer patients: a retrospective nested case-control study.

Background: Catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) is a common complication for patients who receive central venous catheter (CVC) placement. This study investigated the risk factors for CRT and developed a nomogram for CRT prediction among cancer patients. Methods: This nested case-control study was conducted in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University between January 2019 and February 2021. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for CRT. A nomogram was developed to predict CRT. Receiver operating curves (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curves were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram in the training and validation sets. Results: A total of 4,691 cancer patients were included in this study. Among them, 355 (7.57%) had CRT, and 70% of CRTs occurred in the first week of insertion. Among the 3,284 patients in the training set, the multivariable analysis showed that nine characteristics were independently associated with CRT, and a nomogram was constructed based on the multivariable analysis. The ROC analysis indicated good discrimination in the training set (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.832, 95% CI: 0.802-0.862) and the testing set (AUC = 0.827, 95% CI: 0.783-0.871) for the CRT nomogram. The calibration curves showed good calibration abilities, and the decision curves indicated the clinical usefulness of the prediction nomograms. Conclusion: The validated nomogram accurately predicts CRT occurrence in cancer patients. This model may assist clinicians in developing treatment plans for each patient.