e-Cigarettes, Smoking Cessation, and Weight Change: Retrospective Secondary Analysis of the Evaluating the Efficacy of e-Cigarette Use for Smoking Cessation Trial.

backgroundWhile smoking cessation has been linked to substantial weight gain, the potential influence of e-cigarettes on weight changes among individuals who use these devices to quit smoking is not fully understood.

objectiveThis study aims to reanalyze data from the Evaluating the Efficacy of e-Cigarette Use for Smoking Cessation (E3) trial to assess the causal effects of e-cigarette use on change in body weight.

methodsThis is a secondary analysis of the E3 trial in which participants were randomized into 3 groups: nicotine e-cigarettes plus counseling, nonnicotine e-cigarettes plus counseling, and counseling alone. With adjustment for baseline variables and the follow-up smoking abstinence status, weight changes were compared between the groups from baseline to 12 weeks' follow-up. Intention-to-treat and as-treated analyses were conducted using doubly robust estimation. Further causal analysis used 2 different propensity scoring methods to estimate causal regression curves for 4 smoking-related continuous variables. We evaluated 5 different subsets of data for each method. Selection bias was addressed, and missing data were imputed by the machine learning method extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost).

resultsA total of 257 individuals with measured weight at week 12 (mean age: 52, SD 12 y; women: n=122, 47.5%) were included. Across the 3 treatment groups, of the 257 participants, 204 (79.4%) who continued to smoke had, on average, largely unchanged weight at 12 weeks, with comparable mean weight gain ranging from -0.24 kg to 0.33 kg, while 53 (20.6%) smoking-abstinent participants gained weight, with a mean weight gain ranging from 2.05 kg to 2.70 kg. After adjustment, our analyses showed that the 2 e-cigarette arms exhibited a mean gain of 0.56 kg versus the counseling alone arm. The causal regression curves analysis also showed no strong evidence supporting a causal relationship between weight gain and the 3 e-cigarette-related variables. e-Cigarettes have small and variable causal effects on weight gain associated with smoking cessation.

conclusionsIn the E3 trial, e-cigarettes seemed to have minimal effects on mitigating the weight gain observed in individuals who smoke and subsequently quit at 3 months. However, given the modest sample size and the potential underuse of e-cigarettes among those randomized to the e-cigarette treatment arms, these results need to be replicated in large, adequately powered trials.

trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02417467; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02417467.