Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39290761›Full record

ArticleArchives of academic emergency medicine2024

Basic Reproduction Number (R0), Doubling Time, and Daily Growth Rate of the COVID-19 Epidemic: An Echological Study.

Roya Karimi, Mehrdad Farrokhi, Neda Izadi, Hadis Ghajari, Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani, Farid Najafi, Ebrahim Shakiba, Manoochehr Karami, Masoud Shojaeian, Ghobad Moradi and 9 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Archives of academic emergency medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. A Glance at Archives of Academic Emergency Medicine Journal in 2024.Archives of academic emergency medicine · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Roya KarimiMohn Center for Diabetes Precision Medicine, Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Mehrdad FarrokhiStudent Research Committee, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Neda IzadiResearch Center for Social Determinants of Health, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Hadis GhajariDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Fatemeh Khosravi ShadmaniInfectious Diseases Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
Farid NajafiResearch Center for Environmental Determinants of Health (RCEDH), Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
Ebrahim ShakibaDepartment of Clinical Biochemistry, Medical School, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
Manoochehr KaramiDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Masoud ShojaeianDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Ghobad MoradiDeterminants of Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran.
Ebrahim GhaderiZoonosis Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran.
Elham NouriDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Kurdistan University of Medical Science, Sanandaj, Iran.
Ali AhmadiDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran; Modeling in Health Research Center, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran.
Abdollah Mohammadian HafshejaniDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran; Modeling in Health Research Center, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran.
Majid SartipiHealth Promotion Research Centre, School of Public Health, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran.
Alireza ZaliFunctional Neurosurgery Research Center, Shohada Tajrish Neurosurgical Center of Excellence, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Ayad Bahadori MonfaredDepartment of Health & Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Raha DavatgarStudent Research Committee, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Seyed Saeed Hashemi NazariSafety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Introduction: In infectious diseases, there are essential indices used to describe the disease state. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number, R0, peak level, doubling time, and daily growth rate of COVID-19. Methods: This ecological study was conducted in 5 provinces of Iran. The daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 were used to determine the basic reproduction number (R0), peak date, doubling time, and daily growth rates in all five provinces. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate epidemiological parameters. Result: The highest and lowest number of deaths were observed in Hamedan (657 deaths) and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari (54 deaths) provinces, respectively. The doubling time of confirmed cases in Kermanshah and Hamedan ranged widely from 18.59 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.38, 20) to 76.66 days (95% CI: 56.36, 119.78). In addition, the highest daily growth rates of confirmed cases were observed in Kermanshah (0.037, 95% CI: 0.034, 0.039) and Sistan and Baluchestan (0.032, 95% CI: 0.030, 0.034) provinces. Conclusion: In light of our findings, it is imperative to tailor containment strategies to the unique epidemiological profiles of each region in order to effectively mitigate the spread and impact of COVID-19. The wide variation in doubling times underscores the importance of flexibility in public health responses. By adapting measures to local conditions, we can better address the evolving dynamics of the pandemic and safeguard the well-being of communities.

Indexed as

Basic Reproduction NumberCOVID-19Disease TransmissionEpidemicsInfectiousPublic Health Surveillance

Identifiers

PMID39290761
PMCPMC11407535

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.