Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39333473›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Predicting COVID-19 booster immunogenicity against future SARS-CoV-2 variants and the benefits of vaccine updates.

Deborah Cromer, Arnold Reynaldi, Ainslie Mitchell, Timothy E Schlub, Jennifer A Juno, Adam K Wheatley, Stephen J Kent, David S Khoury, Miles P Davenport

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Integrating Genomic Data into Test-negative Designs for Estimating Lineage-specific COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Predicting pathogen evolution and immune evasion in the age of artificial intelligence.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2025
    Review
  11. Review
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Deborah CromerKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia. d.cromer@unsw.edu.au.ORCID 0000-0002-5276-5094
Arnold ReynaldiKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Ainslie MitchellKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Timothy E SchlubKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7746-9649
Jennifer A JunoDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-9072-1017
Adam K WheatleyDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-5593-9387
Stephen J KentDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8539-4891
David S KhouryKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2663-1551
Miles P DavenportKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-4751-1831

Funding

Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) 1173528
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to a move to update vaccine antigens in 2022 and 2023. These updated antigens were chosen and approved based largely on in vitro neutralisation titres against recent SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, unavoidable delays in vaccine manufacture and distribution meant that the updated booster vaccine was no longer well-matched to the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant by the time of its deployment. Understanding whether the updating of booster vaccine antigens improves immune responses to subsequent SARS-CoV-2 circulating variants is a major priority in justifying future vaccine updates. Here we analyse all available data on the immunogenicity of variants containing SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and their ability to neutralise later circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. We find that updated booster antigens give a 1.4-fold [95% CI: 1.07-1.82] greater increase in neutralising antibody levels when compared with a historical vaccine immunogen. We then use this to predict the relative protection that can be expected from an updated vaccine even when the circulating variant has evolved away from the updated vaccine immunogen. These findings help inform the rollout of future booster vaccination programmes.

Indexed as

Antibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesImmunization, SecondaryImmunogenicity, VaccineSARS-CoV-2Antigens, ViralHumansAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralAntigens, ViralCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID39333473
PMCPMC11436652

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.