ArticleBMJ open2024
Decline in and recovery of fertility rates after COVID-19-related state of emergency in Japan.
Article in BMJ open, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- A randomized controlled trial of an electronic patient decision aid (PDA) for decision-making around antidepressant use in pregnancy.Archives of women's mental health · 2026Trial
- Anxiety and depressive disorders in adolescent injury prevention and safety promotion: frontier and inequality mapping across 953 locations.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Age-specific impact of COVID-19 on birth rates in Japan: An interrupted time-series analysis using national vital statistics.PloS one · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in fertility rates worldwide. Although many regions have experienced a temporary drop in fertility rates with the spread of the infection, subsequent recovery has varied across countries. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 infection rates and regional sociodemographic factors on the recovery of fertility rates in Japan following the state of emergency.
methodsThis study examined prefectural fertility data from before the COVID-19 pandemic to forecast fertility rates up to 2022 using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. A regression analysis was conducted on fertility rates during the first state of emergency and the subsequent recovery rate with respect to the number of new COVID-19 cases and sociodemographic factors specific to each prefecture.
resultsDuring the first state of emergency, the monthly fertility rate decreased by an average of -13.8% (SD: 6.26, min: -28.78, max: 0.15) compared with the previous year. Over the following 22 months, the average fertility recovery rate was +2.31% (SD: 3.57; min: -8.55, max: 19.54). Multivariate analysis of the impact of the pandemic on fertility changes during the first emergency indicated a negative correlation between new COVID-19 cases per capita and the proportion of nuclear households. No significant correlation was found between fertility recovery rate and new COVID-19 cases or emergency duration. When classifying fertility rate fluctuation patterns before and after the emergency into four clusters, variations were noted in the proportion of the elderly population, marriage divorce rate and the number of internet searches related to pregnancy intentions across the clusters.
conclusionsNo association was found between pregnancy intentions related to the spread of infection, such as the number of new cases and the fertility recovery rate following the first state of emergency. Differences in the patterns of decline and recovery during the pandemic were observed based on population composition and internet searches for infection and pregnancy across different prefectures.
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