Evidence mapPaperPMID 39392052Full record

SynthesisAnnals of medicine2024

Scoring and validation of a simple model for predicting diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes based on a meta-analysis approach of 21 cohorts.

Hang Guo, Fei Han, Jing-Ru Qu, Cong-Qing Pan, Bei Sun, Li-Ming Chen

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisValidation Study
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Annals of medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Diabetic retinal disease.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2025
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Hang GuoNHC Key Laboratory of Hormones and Development, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital and Tianjin Institute of Endocrinology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0001-8712-9787
Fei HanNHC Key Laboratory of Hormones and Development, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital and Tianjin Institute of Endocrinology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Jing-Ru QuNHC Key Laboratory of Hormones and Development, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital and Tianjin Institute of Endocrinology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Cong-Qing PanNHC Key Laboratory of Hormones and Development, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital and Tianjin Institute of Endocrinology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Bei SunNHC Key Laboratory of Hormones and Development, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital and Tianjin Institute of Endocrinology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Li-Ming ChenNHC Key Laboratory of Hormones and Development, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, Chu Hsien-I Memorial Hospital and Tianjin Institute of Endocrinology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimTo develop and validate a model for predicting diabetic retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes.

methodsAll risk factors with statistical significance in the DR prediction model were scored by their weights. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Kaplan-Meier curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis. The prediction model was externally validated using a validation cohort from a Chinese hospital.

resultsIn this meta-analysis, 21 cohorts involving 184,737 patients with type 2 diabetes were examined. Sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus (DM) duration, albuminuria, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and TG were identified to be statistically significant. Thus, they were all included in the model and scored according to their weights (maximum score: 35.0). The model was validated using an external cohort with median follow-up time of 32 months. At a critical value of 16.0, the AUC value, sensitivity and specificity of the validation cohort are 0.772 ((95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.740-0.803),

conclusionsThe simple DR prediction model developed has good overall calibration and discrimination performance. It can be used as a simple tool to detect patients at high risk of DR.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Diabetic RetinopathyBlood PressureCohort StudiesGlycated HemoglobinHumansRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC CurveSensitivity and SpecificityGlycated Hemoglobinclinical prediction modelcohort studyDiabetic retinopathymeta-analysis

Identifiers

PMID39392052
PMCPMC11485693

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.