ArticleCancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer Center
The Trends of Gastric Cancer in China From 1990 to 2019 and Predictions to 2040: A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Prediction Study.
Article in Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer Center. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Temporal trends, risk factors, and future projections of gastric cancer burden in China, India, and the United States: a GBD 2023 analysis.Discover oncology · 2026Article
- RYK silencing-modified bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells suppress gastric cancer progression.In vitro cellular & developmental biology. Animal · 2026Article
- Effects of high CD93 expression on tumor growth and angiogenesis in gastric adenocarcinoma.PloS one · 2026Article
- Burden, trends, driving factors, and predictions of gastric cancer: a cross-national comparative analysis of China, Japan, and South Korea.BMC cancer · 2025Article
- Gastric Cancer and Microbiota: Exploring the Microbiome's Role in Carcinogenesis and Treatment Strategies.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of cadonilimab plus chemotherapy as a first-line treatment option in HER-2-negative advanced gastric cancer.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Global, regional, and national trends in gastric cancer burden: 1990-2021 and projections to 2040.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
objectivesThis study aims to provide the most up-to-date temporal trends in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of total gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the gastric cancer trends up to 2040.
methodsData for the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of stomach cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). We conducted joinpoint regression analysis to explore possible segmented changes in gastric cancer trends. We predicted gastric cancer trends up to 2040 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
resultsThe absolute incidence, mortality, and DALYs of gastric cancer increased from 1990 to 2019 in China. However, the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, mortality, and DALYs for gastric cancer decreased between 1990 and 2019, and the reductions were more pronounced for mortality and DALYs for gastric cancer.
conclusionOur study generally reveals favorable declining trends of gastric cancer incidence and predicts that this will continue to 2040. However, the high contemporary incidence combined with China's aging population will likely slow or even reverse the declining trend in gastric cancer mortality.
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