Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39508243›Full record

ArticleBMC endocrine disorders2024

Assessing the validity of METS-IR for predicting the future onset of diabetes: an analysis using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics.

Jiajun Qiu, Shiming He, Changhui Yu, Ruijuan Yang, Maobin Kuang, Guotai Sheng, Yang Zou

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC endocrine disorders, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jiajun QiuJiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China.
Shiming HeJiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China.
Changhui YuJiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China.
Ruijuan YangJiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China.
Maobin KuangJiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China.
Guotai ShengJiangxi Provincial Geriatric Hospital, Jiangxi Provincial People's Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang Medical College, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi Provincial, China. tgs200509@163.com.
Yang ZouJiangxi Cardiovascular Research Institute, Jiangxi Provincial People's Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang Medical College, Nanchang, 330006, Jiangxi Provincial, China. jxyxyzy@163.com.

Funding

Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province 20232BAB216004
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Metabolic Insulin Resistance Score (METS-IR) is a non-invasive proxy for insulin resistance (IR) that has been newly developed in recent years and has been shown to be associated with diabetes risk. Our aim was to assess the predictive value of METS-IR for the future development of diabetes and its temporal differences in people of different sex, age, and body mass index (BMI).

methodsThe current study included 15,453 baseline non-diabetic subjects in the NAGALA cohort and then grouped according to the World Health Organization's (WHO) recommended criteria for age and BMI. Multivariate Cox regression and time-dependent receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were used to analyze the value of METS-IR in assessing and predicting the risk of diabetes in people of different sexes, ages, and BMIs.

results373 individuals developed diabetes during the observation period. By multivariate COX regression analysis, the development of future diabetes was significantly associated with increased METS-IR, and this positive association was stronger in women than in men and in individuals < 45 years than in individuals ≥ 45 years; while no significant differences were observed between non-obese and overweight/obesity individuals. Using time-dependent ROC analysis we also assessed the predictive value of METS-IR for future diabetes at a total of 11-time points between 2 and 12 years. The results showed that METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the future development of diabetes in women or individuals < 45 years of age compared to men or individuals ≥ 45 years of age for almost the entire follow-up period. Furthermore, across different BMI categories, we also found that in the short term (3-5 years), METS-IR had a higher predictive value for the development of diabetes in individuals with overweight/obesity, while in the medium to long term (6-12 years), METS-IR was more accurate in predicting the development of diabetes in non-obese individuals.

conclusionsOur study showed that METS-IR was independently associated with the development of future diabetes in a non-diabetic population. METS-IR was a good predictor of diabetes, especially for women and individuals < 45 years old for predicting the future risk of developing diabetes at all times.

Indexed as

Insulin ResistanceROC CurveAdultAgedBody Mass IndexDiabetes MellitusDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMaleMetabolic SyndromeMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRisk FactorsDiabetesMETS-IRNon-invasivePredictionTemporal differencesTime-dependent ROC

Identifiers

PMID39508243
PMCPMC11542444

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.