Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39546563›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024

Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three types of uncertainty.

Mikhail S Spektor, Dirk U Wulff

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three types of uncertainty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Mikhail S Spektor *College of Arts and Sciences, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Vietnam.ORCID 0000-0003-0652-1993
Dirk U Wulff *Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin 14195, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4008-8022

Funding

BBVA | Fundación BBVA (FBBVA) G999088QMEC | Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) CEX2019-000915-SMinisterio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España (MINECO) FJC2019-040970-IMinisterio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España (MINECO) PID2019-105249GB-I00Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (SNF) 197315Stiftung Suzanne und Hans Biäsch zur Förderung der Angewandten Psychologie (Stiftung Biäsch) 2019-23
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

How do people search for information when they are given the opportunity to freely explore their options? Previous research has suggested that people focus on reducing uncertainty before making a decision, but it remains unclear how exactly they do so and whether they do so consistently. We present an analysis of over 1,000,000 information-search decisions made by over 2,500 individuals in a decisions-from-experience setting that cleanly separates information search from choice. Using a data-driven approach supported by a formal measurement framework, we examine how people allocate samples to options and how they decide to terminate search. Three major insights emerge. First, predecisional information search has at least three drivers that can be interpreted as reducing three types of uncertainty: structural, estimation, and computational. Second, the selection of these drivers of information search is adaptive, sequential, and guided by environmental knowledge that integrates prior expectations, task instructions, and personal experiences. Third, predecisional information search exhibits substantial interindividual heterogeneity, with individuals recruiting different drivers of information search. Together, these insights suggest that human information search is complex in ways that cannot be fully explained by monolithic accounts of information search, including proposals focused on estimation uncertainty or cost-benefit analysis. We conclude that broader theories of human information-search behavior are necessary.

Indexed as

Decision MakingAdultChoice BehaviorFemaleHumansInformation Seeking BehaviorMaleUncertaintyinformation searchprocess tracingrisky choicessampling paradigm

Identifiers

PMID39546563
PMCPMC11588055

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.