Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39638607›Full record

ArticleBMJ global health2024

Cardiovascular health and economic outcomes under improved air quality in China: a modelling study.

Siyuan Wang, Yawen Jiang, Zhiwei Xu, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Sarah Lewis, Mingsheng Chen, Laura Downey, Stephen Jan, Lei Si

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ global health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Siyuan WangThe George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Yawen JiangSchool of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0498-0662
Zhiwei XuSchool of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Gian Luca Di TannaDepartment of Business Economics, Health and Social Care, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Lugano, Switzerland.
Sarah LewisSchool of Health Sciences, Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia.
Mingsheng ChenSchool of Health Policy and Management, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China cms@njmu.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9741-0986
Laura DowneyThe George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Stephen JanThe George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Lei SiSchool of Health Sciences, Western Sydney University, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionChina faces the dual challenge of high air pollution and an increasing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to estimate the healthcare costs associated with CVD and the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) under scenarios of improved air quality in China.

methodsA health prediction model was developed to estimate 10-year CVD-related costs and QALY associated with PM2.5 levels in 2015, as well as two hypothetical improved air quality scenarios: (1) the China national PM2.5 target of 35 µg/m³, and (2) the World Health Organization's (WHO) PM2.5 guideline of 5 µg/m³. Population CVD risks were estimated from the 2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Hazard ratios from WHO risk curves were subsequently applied to baseline cardiovascular risks to predict national 10-year estimates of ischaemic stroke and coronary heart disease-related healthcare expenditures and QALYs for individuals aged 45-85 under the three air quality scenarios.

resultsUnder PM2.5 levels in 2015, we estimated a cumulative 10-year incidence of 35.40 million CVD events, resulting in healthcare costs of US$96.12 billion and 4.44 billion QALYs. Under the national target of 35 µg/m³, the projected 10-year CVD incidence was 31.92 million cases, resulting in cost savings of US$9.29 billion and 3.43 million QALY gains compared with 2015 levels. If PM2.5 concentration levels meet the WHO's guideline of 5 µg/m³, the projected number of CVD events would decrease to 24.18 million, translating to cost savings of approximately US$30.10 billion and gains of 11.29 million QALYs.

conclusionOur findings indicate that achieving the WHO recommended PM2.5 concentration level of 5 µg/m³ could lead to over threefold greater health and economic benefits than those achievable under national standards of 35 µg/m³. This underscores the potential need for stricter future national PM2.5 standards. Our findings also inform other low- and middle-income countries in establishing effective long-term PM2.5 targets.

Indexed as

Air PollutionCardiovascular DiseasesParticulate MatterQuality-Adjusted Life YearsAgedAged, 80 and overChinaFemaleHealth Care CostsHumansMaleMiddle AgedParticulate MatterCardiovascular diseaseEnvironmental healthHealth economicsHealth policy

Identifiers

PMID39638607
PMCPMC11624721

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.