Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39747648›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2025

A multitask deep learning model utilizing electrocardiograms for major cardiovascular adverse events prediction.

Ching-Heng Lin, Zhi-Yong Liu, Pao-Hsien Chu, Jung-Sheng Chen, Hsin-Hsu Wu, Ming-Shien Wen, Chang-Fu Kuo, Ting-Yu Chang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Ching-Heng LinCenter for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Zhi-Yong LiuCenter for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Pao-Hsien ChuDepartment of Cardiology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Jung-Sheng ChenCenter for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Hsin-Hsu WuKidney Research Center, Department of Nephrology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Ming-Shien WenDepartment of Cardiology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Chang-Fu KuoCenter for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
Ting-Yu ChangCollege of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan. t_y_chang@hotmail.com.

Funding

Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan) MOST111-2321-B-182A-004
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Deep learning analysis of electrocardiography (ECG) may predict cardiovascular outcomes. We present a novel multi-task deep learning model, the ECG-MACE, which predicts the one-year first-ever major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) using 2,821,889 standard 12-lead ECGs, including training (n = 984,895), validation (n = 422,061), and test (n = 1,414,933) sets, from Chang Gung Memorial Hospital database in Taiwan. Data from another independent medical center (n = 113,224) was retrieved for external validation. The model's performance achieves AUROCs of 0.90 for heart failure (HF), 0.85 for myocardial infarction (MI), 0.76 for ischemic stroke (IS), and 0.89 for mortality. Furthermore, it outperforms the Framingham risk score at 5-year MACEs and 10-year mortality prediction. Over 10-year follow-ups, the model-predicted-positive group exhibits significantly higher MACE incidences than the model-predicted-negative group (relative incidence ratio: HF: 15.28; MI: 7.87; IS: 4.74; mortality: 13.18). Using solely ECGs, ECG-MACE effectively predicts one-year events and exhibits long-term anticipation. It provides potential applications in preventive medicine.

Identifiers

PMID39747648
PMCPMC11696183

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.