Predictive Value of Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin for Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in Chinese Population - A Retrospective Study.

Objective: To analyze the independent associations of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5 in China and evaluate their predictive values for ESRD. Patients and Methods: A total of 716 patients with CKD stages 3-5 at the time of the initial renal medicine referral were retrospectively enrolled, and the study outcome was the observed incidence of ESRD at 2 years after the initial referral. Baseline characteristics were collected, and relevant laboratory indexes, including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), were detected. The binary Results: The 2-year incidence of ESRD was 20.5% (147/716). The 4-variable KFRE, 8-variable KFRE and NGAL were independently associated with ESRD after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The AUCs of the 4-variable KFRE, 8-variable KFRE and NGAL for predicting ESRD among patients with CKD stages 3-5 were 0.711 [standard error ( Conclusion: The KFRE was able to independently predict progression of CKD stage 3-5 to ESRD in Chinese population. The addition of NGAL to the KFRE was able to elevate the predictive value when applied in predicting 2-year ESRD.