Evidence mapPaperPMID 39762991Full record

ArticleDiabetes, obesity & metabolism2025

Association between the changes in the estimated glucose disposal rate and new-onset cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and elderly individuals: A nationwide prospective cohort study in China.

Lunqing Yan, Zhe Zhou, Xing Wu, Yumin Qiu, Zhefu Liu, Lifang Luo, Yang Yang, Xi Lu, Jiang He, Wenhao Xia

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Diabetes, obesity & metabolism, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Lunqing YanDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.ORCID 0009-0001-5732-8512
Zhe ZhouDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Xing WuDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Yumin QiuDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Zhefu LiuDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Lifang LuoDepartment of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China.
Yang YangDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Xi LuDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Jiang HeDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Wenhao XiaDepartment of Hypertension and Vascular Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.

Funding

China Postdoctoral Science Foundation 2024M753787Chinese Cardiovascular Association-ASCVD fund 2023-CCA-ASCVD-093Guangxi Medical and Health Technology Development and Application Project S2023001Guangzhou Key-Area Research and Development Program 202206080004Health Appropriate Technology Promotion Project of Guangdong Province 202207012217453229National Natural Science Foundation of China 82170427National Natural Science Foundation of China 82270458National Natural Science Foundation of China 82400512National Natural Science Foundation of China 82470456Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province 2021A1515220019Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province 2023A1515010540Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province 2024A1515013213Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi Province 2023JJD140066
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsPrevious studies have shown that eGDR and TyG, as indicators of insulin resistance (IR), were key risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our study further explored the relationship between eGDR change and new-onset CVD, and compared the predictive value of eGDR change, eGDR and TyG. MATERIALS AND

methodsA total of 2895 participants without CVD at baseline from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were included, using K-means clustering and cumulative eGDR to measure eGDR change between 2012 and 2015. Cox and restricted cubic splines (RCS) regression models assessed the relationship between eGDR change and new-onset CVD. The predictive value of TyG, eGDR and eGDR change for outcomes was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

resultsDuring a mean follow-up of 4.42 years, 581 CVD cases occurred, including 389 heart disease cases and 249 stroke cases. Participants with consistently low eGDR had a higher new-onset CVD risk (HR: 2.51, 95%CI: 2.04-3.09). A stepwise increase of outcomes was observed with the increased cumulative eGDR (p for trend <0.001). Further analysis showed the correlation between cumulative eGDR and outcomes was linear. Compared to eGDR and TyG, cumulative eGDR exerted greater predictive effect as evaluated by area under curve, IDI and NRI.

conclusionsSustained low eGDR was related to an increased risk of new-onset CVD in middle-aged and elderly population. Continuous monitoring of eGDR significantly enhances the accuracy of new-onset CVD risk stratification, which may reduce the incidence of new-onset CVD.

Indexed as

Blood GlucoseCardiovascular DiseasesInsulin ResistanceAgedChinaFemaleHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk FactorsBlood Glucosecardiovascular diseasesCHARLSestimated glucose disposal rate changeinsulin resistanceK‐means clustering

Identifiers

PMID39762991
PMCPMC11885094

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.