Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39780615›Full record

ArticleJournal of evaluation in clinical practice2025

The Role of Double-Zero-Event Studies in Evidence Synthesis: Evaluating Robustness Using the Fragility Index.

Zelin Wang, Xing Xing, Eun-Young Mun, Chong Wu, Lifeng Lin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of evaluation in clinical practice, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Zelin WangDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
Xing XingDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Eun-Young MunDepartment of Population and Community Health, College of Public Health, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, Texas, USA.
Chong WuDepartment of Biostatistics, MD Anderson Cancer Center, The University of Texas, Houston, Texas, USA.
Lifeng LinDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3562-9816

Funding

Innovative Analyses of Alcohol Intervention Trials for College StudentsR01AA019511 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS HLTH SCI CTR · PI MUN, EUN-YOUNG · 2010 to 2021
$4.6M
Statistical Methods and Software for Multivariate Meta-analysisR01LM012982 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI LIN, LIFENG, SIEGEL, LIANNE · 2019 to 2022
$1.3M
Optimizing Brief Alcohol Interventions for Young Adults via Computational MethodsK02AA028630 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS HLTH SCI CTR · PI MUN, EUN-YOUNG · 2021 to 2025
$668k
Advanced Methods and Software for Trial Sequential Analysis in Living Systematic ReviewsR21LM014533 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA · PI LIN, LIFENG · 2024 to 2025
$364k
Joint modeling of continuous and binary data in meta-analysisR03MH128727 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA · PI LIN, LIFENG · 2022 to 2023
$146k
NIAAA NIH HHS K02 AA028630NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA019511NIMH NIH HHS R03 MH128727NLM NIH HHS R01 LM012982NLM NIH HHS R21 LM014533This work was supported by the US National Institute of Mental Health grant R03 MH128727, the US National Library of Medicine grants R21 LM014533 and R01 LM012982, and the Arizona Biomedical Research Centre grant RFGA2023-008-11. E.Y.M. was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism grants K02 AA028630 and R01 AA019511.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

rationaleZero-event counts are common in clinical studies, particularly when assessing rare adverse events. These occurrences can result from low event rates, short follow-up periods, and small sample sizes. When both intervention and control groups report zero events in a clinical trial, the study is referred to as a double-zero-event study, which presents methodological challenges for evidence synthesis. There has been ongoing debate about whether these studies should be excluded from evidence synthesis, as traditional two-stage meta-analysis methods may not estimate an effect size for them. Recent research suggests that these studies may still contain valuable clinical and statistical information. AIMS AND

objectivesThis study examines the role of double-zero-event studies from the perspective of the fragility index (FI), a popular metric for assessing the robustness of clinical results. We aim to determine how including or excluding double-zero-event studies affects FI derivations in meta-analyses.

methodsWe conducted an illustrative case study to demonstrate how double-zero-event studies can impact FI derivations. Additionally, we performed a large-scale analysis of 12,184 Cochrane meta-analyses involving zero-event studies to assess the prevalence and effect of double-zero-event studies on FI calculations.

resultsOur analysis revealed that FI derivations in 6608 (54.2%) of these meta-analyses involved double-zero-event studies. Excluding double-zero-event studies could lead to artificially inflated FI values, potentially misrepresenting the results as more robust than they are.

conclusionsWe advocate for retaining double-zero-event studies in meta-analyses and emphasise the importance of carefully considering their role in FI assessments. Including these studies ensures a more accurate evaluation of the robustness of clinical results in evidence synthesis.

Indexed as

Meta-Analysis as TopicClinical Trials as TopicData Interpretation, StatisticalHumansResearch DesignSample Sizedouble‐zero‐event studiesevidence synthesisfragility indexmeta‐analysisrare eventrobustness

Identifiers

PMID39780615
PMCPMC11735258

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.