Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39799531›Full record

ArticleEndocrine2025

Assessing the risk of heart failure in type 2 diabetes: a prediction algorithm to sustain the evaluation of NT-proBNP in primary care.

Francesco Lapi, Ettore Marconi, Gerardo Medea, Iacopo Cricelli, Damiano Parretti, Alessandro Rossi, Claudio Cricelli

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Article in Endocrine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Francesco LapiHealth Search, Italian College of General Practitioners and Primary Care, Florence, Italy. lapi.francesco@simg.it.ORCID 0000-0002-4342-9128
Ettore MarconiHealth Search, Italian College of General Practitioners and Primary Care, Florence, Italy.
Gerardo MedeaItalian College of General Practitioners and Primary Care, Florence, Italy.
Iacopo CricelliGenomedics SRL, Florence, Italy.
Damiano ParrettiItalian College of General Practitioners and Primary Care, Florence, Italy.
Alessandro RossiItalian College of General Practitioners and Primary Care, Florence, Italy.
Claudio CricelliItalian College of General Practitioners and Primary Care, Florence, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeHeart failure (HF) is a disease that leads to approximately 300,000 fatalities annually in Europe and 250,000 deaths each year in the United States. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is a significant risk factor for HF, and testing for N-terminal (NT)-pro hormone BNP (NT-proBNP) can aid in early detection of HF in T2DM patients. We therefore developed and validated the HFriskT2DM-HScore, an algorithm to predict the risk of HF in T2DM patients, so guiding NT-proBNP investigation in a primary care setting.

methodsUsing a primary care database, we formed a cohort of patients aged ≥18 years diagnosed with T2DM between 2002 and 2022. A multivariate Cox model was adopted to assess the determinants associated with the occurrence of HF to combine them to form an individual score.

resultsWithin a cohort of 167,618 patients (52.3% males; mean age 64.4 (SD: 14.4); HF rate equal to 6.7 cases per 1000 person-years), we developed the HFriskT2DM-HScore. When it was applied to the validation sub-cohort we found an explained variation and discrimination value of 43% (95% CI: 42-44) and 81% (95% CI: 0.80-0.83), respectively. Calibration slope was equal to 0.93 (95% CI: 0.81-1.1; p = 0.3123).

conclusionThe HFriskT2DM-HScore might be implemented as a decision support system for primary care to appropriately ease the prescription of NT-proBNP and early identification of HF.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Heart FailureNatriuretic Peptide, BrainPeptide FragmentsAdultAgedCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrediction AlgorithmsPrimary Health CareRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsNatriuretic Peptide, BrainPeptide Fragmentspro-brain natriuretic peptide (1-76)Case findingHeart failureNT-proBNPType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID39799531

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.