Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39845345›Full record

ArticleSurgery in practice and science2024

A meta-analysis of the American college of surgeons risk calculator's predictive accuracy among different surgical sub-specialties.

Alyssa M Goodwin, Steven S Kurapaty, Jacqueline E Inglis, Srikanth N Divi, Alpesh A Patel, Wellington K Hsu

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Article in Surgery in practice and science, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

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0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Alyssa M GoodwinDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL 60611, USA.
Steven S KurapatyDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL 60611, USA.
Jacqueline E InglisDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL 60611, USA.
Srikanth N DiviDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL 60611, USA.
Alpesh A PatelDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL 60611, USA.
Wellington K HsuDepartment of Orthopaedic Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL 60611, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) provides risk estimates of postoperative complications. While several studies have examined the accuracy of the ACS-Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) within a single specialty, the respective conclusions are limited by sample size. We sought to conduct a meta-analysis to determine the accuracy of the ACS-SRC among various surgical specialties. Study design: Clinical studies that utilized the ACS-SRC, predicted complication rates compared to actual rates, and analyzed at least one metric reported by ACS-SRC met the inclusion criteria. Data for each specialty were pooled using the DerSimonian and Laird random-effect models and analyzed with the binary random-effect model to produce risk difference (RD) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) using Open Meta[A Results: The initial search yielded 281 studies and, after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 53 studies remained with a total sample of 30,134 patients spanning 10 surgical specialties. When considering any complication and death, the ACS-SRC significantly underpredicted complications for: Orthopaedic Surgery (RD -0.067, Conclusion: The ACS-SRC proved useful in General, Acute Care, Colorectal, Otolaryngology, and Cardiothoracic Surgery, but significantly underpredicted complication rates in Spine, Orthopaedics, Urology, Surgical Oncology, and Gynecology. These data indicate the ACS-SRC is a reliable predictor in some specialties, but its use should be cautioned in the remaining specialties evaluated here.

Indexed as

ComplicationsSurgical risk calculatorSurgical sub-specialty

Identifiers

PMID39845345
PMCPMC11749946

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