Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39876009›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2025

Global, regional, and national burdens of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in adolescents from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

Xing Chen, Luying Zhang, Wen Chen

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Article in BMC medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
39citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

39 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Xing ChenDepartment of Health Economics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Luying ZhangDepartment of Health Economics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. zhangluying@fudan.edu.cn.
Wen ChenDepartment of Health Economics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China No.72342016National Natural Science Foundation of China No.72374049
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAdolescent diabetes is one of the major public health problems worldwide. This study aims to estimate the burden of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in adolescents from 1990 to 2021, and to predict diabetes prevalence through 2030.

methodsWe extracted epidemiologic data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) on T1DM and T2DM among adolescents aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories worldwide. This study calculated the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) in adolescents based on the world standard population for cross-country comparisons. Average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in age-standardized rate were calculated by linkage point regression. Correlation analyses were used to identify the relationship between age-standardized rate and sociodemographic index (SDI). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict changes in the diabetes prevalence among adolescents from 2022 to 2030.

resultsIn 2021, 3.4 million adolescents were living with T1DM, with an ASPR of 180.96 (95% CI 180.77-181.15), and 14.6 million were living with T2DM, with ASPR of 1190.73 (1190.13-1191.34). As national and territory SDI levels rise, the prevalence rate of T1DM increases (r = 0.44, p < 0.01), and the prevalence rate of T2DM decreases (r = - 0.18, p < 0.01). Compared with males, females had a greater age-standardized prevalence of T1DM (185.49 [185.21-185.76] vs. 176.66 [176.39-176.92]), whereas males had a greater ASPR of T2DM than females did (1241.45 [1240.58-1242.31] vs. 1138.24 [1137.40-1139.09]). This study found a negative correlation between the SDI and the ASDR for both T1DM (r = - 0.51, p < 0.01) and T2DM (r = - 0.62, p < 0.01) in adolescents. For T2DM patients, 32.84% of DALYs were attributed to high BMI, which increased by 40.78% during the study period. By 2030, 3.7 million people are projected to have T1DM, and 14.6 million are projected to have T2DM.

conclusionsAmong adolescents, the burden of T1DM and T2DM is increasing and varies by region, sex, and SDI. Therefore, targeted interventions based on regional features are needed to prevent and control adolescent diabetes. Moreover, more efforts are needed to control climate change and obesity to reduce the adolescent diabetes burden.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Global Burden of DiseaseAdolescentChildFemaleForecastingGlobal HealthHumansMalePrevalenceYoung AdultAdolescentDiabetes mellitusDisease burden

Identifiers

PMID39876009
PMCPMC11776159

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.