ArticleStroke and vascular neurology2025
Explainable models for predicting long-term outcomes in patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: a retrospective cohort study.
Article in Stroke and vascular neurology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimRecently, long-term outcomes in patients with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (sICH) have gained increasing attention besides acute-phase characteristics. Predictive models for long-term outcomes are valuable for risk stratification and treatment strategies. This study aimed to develop and validate an explainable model for predicting long-term recurrence and all-cause death in patients with ICH, using clinical and imaging markers of cerebral small vascular diseases from MRI.
methodWe retrospectively analysed data from a prospectively collected large-scale cohort of patients with acute ICH admitted to the Neurology Department of The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University between November 2016 and April 2023. After comprehensive variable selection using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and stepwise Cox regression, we constructed Cox proportional hazards models to predict recurrence and all-cause death. Model performance was evaluated using the concordance index, integrated Brier score and time-dependent area under the curve. Global and local interpretability were assessed using variable importance calculated as SurvSHAP(t) and SurvLIME methods for the entire training set and individual patients, respectively.
resultsA total of 842 eligible patients were included. Over a median follow-up of 36 months (IQR: 12-51), 86 patients (9.1%) died, and 62 patients (6.6%) experienced recurrence of ICH. The concordance indexes for the all-cause death and recurrence models were 0.841 (95% CI 0.767 to 0.913) and 0.759 (95% CI 0.651 to 0.867), respectively, with integrated Brier scores of 0.079 and 0.063. The interpretability maps highlighted age, aetiology of ICH and low haemoglobin as key predictors of long-term death, while cortical superficial siderosis and previous haemorrhage were crucial for predicting recurrence.
conclusionsThis model demonstrates high predictive accuracy and emphasises the crucial factors in predicting long-term outcomes of patients with sICH.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.