Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40044233›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2025

Projections for prevalence of Parkinson's disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Dongning Su, Yusha Cui, Chengzhang He, Peng Yin, Ruhai Bai, Jinqiao Zhu, Joyce S T Lam, Junjiao Zhang, Rui Yan, Xiaoqing Zheng and 5 more

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 290 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
290citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07503418 nacompletednot on this map

Enhancing Nursing Students' Empathy and Learning in Parkinson's Disease Through High-Fidelity Simulation and Blended Learning: A Randomised Controlled Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of CadizRan2025 to 2025Enrolled84ConditionsParkinson Disease (PD)ArmsBlended-learning capsules, High-Fidelity Physical Simulation, Simulated Home Environment
NCT07525973 naenrolling by invitationnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

The Effect of Eye Exercises on Physical Function, Balance, and Fall Risk in Patients With Parkinson's Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorPardis Specialized Wellness InstituteRan2026 to 2026Enrolled34ConditionsParkinson DiseaseArmsSupervised In-Center Eye Exercises
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

290 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. "Efficacy, safety and certainty of evidence for selective D1/D5 dopamine receptor partial agonists in Parkinson's disease: a systematic review, meta-analysis and GRADE assessment".Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Pooled it
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  3. Efficacy of GLP-1 receptor agonists in Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and exploratory network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Pooled it
  4. Effect of vestibular rehabilitation therapy on balance function and quality of life in patients with Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Pooled it
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  11. Trial
  12. Journal of Parkinson's disease · 2026
    Trial
  13. Review
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  20. The neurologist of 2050: Rethinking the role in movement disorders in a technologically transformed society.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Review

230 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Dongning SuCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Yusha CuiCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Chengzhang HeGYENNO Science Co, Ltd, Shenzhen, China.
Peng YinThe National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Xicheng District, Beijing, China.
Ruhai BaiEvidence-Based Research Center of Social Science and Health, School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
Jinqiao ZhuCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Joyce S T LamPacific Parkinson's Research Centre, Djavad Mowafaghian Centre for Brain Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Junjiao ZhangCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Rui YanCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Xiaoqing ZhengCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Jiayi WuCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Dong ZhaoDepartment of Epidemiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing Institute of Heart, Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing, China.
Anxin WangDepartment of Epidemiology, Beijing Neurosurgical Institute, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Maigeng ZhouThe National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Xicheng District, Beijing, China.
Tao FengCenter for Movement Disorders, Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-8530-4622

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo predict the global, regional, and national prevalence of Parkinson's disease by age, sex, year, and Socio-demographic Index to 2050 and quantify the factors driving changes in Parkinson's disease cases.

designModelling study. DATA SOURCE: Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

main outcome measuresPrevalent number, all age prevalence and age standardised prevalence of Parkinson's disease in 2050, and average annual percentage change of prevalence from 2021 to 2050; contribution of population ageing, population growth, and changes in prevalence to the growth in Parkinson's disease cases; population attributable fractions for modifiable factors.

results25.2 (95% uncertainty interval 21.7 to 30.1) million people were projected to be living with Parkinson's disease worldwide in 2050, representing a 112% (95% uncertainty interval 71% to 152%) increase from 2021. Population ageing (89%) was predicted to be the primary contributor to the growth in cases from 2021 to 2050, followed by population growth (20%) and changes in prevalence (3%). The prevalence of Parkinson's disease was forecasted to be 267 (230 to 320) cases per 100 000 in 2050, indicating a significant increase of 76% (56% to 125%) from 2021, whereas the age standardised prevalence was predicted to be 216 (168 to 281) per 100 000, with an increase of 55% (50% to 60%) from 2021. Countries in the middle fifth of Socio-demographic Index were projected to have the highest percentage increase in the all age prevalence (144%, 87% to 183%) and age standardised prevalence (91%, 82% to 101%) of Parkinson's disease between 2021 and 2050. Among Global Burden of Disease regions, East Asia (10.9 (9.0 to 13.3) million) was projected to have the highest number of Parkinson's disease cases in 2050, with western Sub-Saharan Africa (292%, 266% to 362%) experiencing the most significant increase from 2021. The ≥80 years age group was projected to have the greatest increase in the number of Parkinson's disease cases (196%, 143% to 235%) from 2021 to 2050. The male-to-female ratios of age standardised prevalence of Parkinson's disease were projected to increase from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050 globally.

conclusionsBy 2050 Parkinson's disease will have become a greater public health challenge for patients, their families, care givers, communities, and society. The upward trend is expected to be more pronounced among countries with middle Socio-demographic Index, in the Global Burden of Disease East Asia region, and among men. This projection could serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseParkinson DiseaseAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionFemaleForecastingGlobal HealthHumansMaleMiddle AgedPopulation GrowthPrevalenceSex Distribution

Identifiers

PMID40044233
PMCPMC11881235

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.