Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40052349›Full record

ArticleJournal of gastroenterology and hepatology2025

Individualized Effects of Weight Gain in Adulthood on the Development of MASLD in Japanese Non-Obese Individuals.

Kaiji Fukamizo, Yasuhiro Hagiwara, Takeshi Kimura, Yutaka Matsuyama

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Kaiji FukamizoDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3594-5963
Yasuhiro HagiwaraDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Takeshi KimuraCenter for Preventive Medicine, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2435-0879
Yutaka MatsuyamaDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

Funding

AMED JP21lk0201701
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThis study aimed to estimate the individualized effect of weight change since age 20 on the development of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in Japanese non-obese individuals. We also assessed the clinical characteristics of high-risk individuals with weight gain.

methodThis retrospective cohort study included non-obese individuals who underwent health examinations at St. Luke's International Hospital between 2008 and 2018. We developed a counterfactual prediction model using logistic regression to predict the risk of MASLD onset within 3 years and predicted counterfactual risks for 5 weight change scenarios: (i) weight loss < -3 kg, (ii) weight maintenance: ±3 kg, (iii) 3.1-6 kg gain, (iv) 6.1-9.9 kg gain, and (v) major weight gain ≥ 10 kg. Individualized effects of weight change were estimated using a risk difference scale, with variability assessed through their distributions and forest plots.

resultsA total of 20 886 individuals (64.4% women) were included, and 2016 (9.6%) developed MASLD within 3 years. The counterfactual prediction model showed the average risk difference for major weight gain ≥ 10 kg was 6.6% (median: 5.1%), with individual risk differences varied from 2% to 19% across individuals. Forest plot showed an increased average risk of 5% for men, abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, and high ALT levels.

conclusionWeight change since age 20 is a significant risk factor for MASLD development in non-obese populations, but its impact varies widely among individuals. Men and individuals with abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, and high ALT levels are particularly susceptible to the effects of weight gain.

Indexed as

Fatty LiverWeight GainAdultAgedCohort StudiesEast Asian PeopleFemaleHumansJapanMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesRisk Factorsbody weight gaincounterfactual predictionindividualized effectMASLD

Identifiers

PMID40052349
PMCPMC12062921

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.