ArticleBMC pregnancy and childbirth2025
A nomogram based on hematological parameters for prediction of spontaneous abortion risk in pregnancies.
Article in BMC pregnancy and childbirth, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPregnancy loss significantly affects physical and mental health. A nomogram for predicting spontaneous abortion risk was developed to improve pregnancy outcomes.
methodsA total of 1346 pregnant women were enrolled from The Third Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (May 2020 - May 2022). The training set included 941 participants, and the validation set had 405. Feature selection was optimized using a random forest model, and a predictive model was constructed via multivariable logistic regression. The nomogram's performance was assessed with receiver operator characteristic (ROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curve, and clinical impact curve (CIC). Discrimination and clinical utility were compared between the nomogram and its individual variables.
resultsAntithrombin III (AT-III), homocysteine (Hcy), complement component 3 (C3), protein C (PC), and anti-β2 glycoprotein I antibody (anti-β2GP1) were identified as risk factors. The nomogram demonstrated satisfactory discrimination (Training AUC: 0.813, 95% CI: 0.790-0.842; Validation AUC: 0.792, 95% CI: 0.741-0.838). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.331) indicated a good fit, and the CIC showed clinical net benefit. The nomogram outperformed individual variables in discrimination (AUC: 0.804, 95% CI: 0.779-0.829).
conclusionThe developed nomogram, incorporating AT-III, Hcy, C3, PC, and anti-β2GP1, aids clinicians in identifying pregnant women at high risk for spontaneous abortion.
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