Seroconversion Model for a Better Understanding of Hantavirus Transmission in Rodents.

Studies show the link between hantavirus infection in rodents and human infection risk. Understanding factors contributing to rodent hantavirus transmission is crucial for assessing and predicting human hantavirus pulmonary syndrome risk. Infection dynamics are often studied using seroprevalence time series from serological tests, but this method only provides an average consequence over time, offering limited insight into timing or mechanisms. To overcome this, we developed a strategy which combines capture-mark-recapture data and longitudinal serological data in order to determine the likely time window for infection and correlate it with individual features (sex and age) and the weather conditions to which each individual rodent was subject throughout its lifetime. We applied our seroconversion model to field data from two sigmodontine species, Akodon azarae and Oligoryzomys flavescens, collected in agroecosystems in the Buenos Aires province of Argentina, from May 2014 to January 2016, with a trapping effort of 19,800 trap-nights. By using daily time series, we found different weather conditions related to high seroconversion rates for each species, hardly identifiable in seroprevalence data. Higher infection rates in males and the fact that strongest effects on seroconversion converge at the time of the year that corresponds to the reproductive period indicate that transmission may be connected to matting behavior. In addition, by comparing weather conditions that relate to seroconversion with those which favor virus persistence in the environment, we argue that nesting habits could also play a role in hantavirus transmission.