Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40140622›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2025

Blood-based biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease and incident dementia in the community.

Giulia Grande, Martina Valletta, Debora Rizzuto, Xin Xia, Chengxuan Qiu, Nicola Orsini, Matilda Dale, Sarah Andersson, Claudia Fredolini, Bengt Winblad and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 112 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
112citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

112 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  14. Expert opinion on Alzheimer's disease diagnostics and management in Central Eastern European countries representing 88 million population.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Distinct ocular microvascular alterations in Alzheimer's disease and cerebral small vessel disease.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

52 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Giulia GrandeAging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden. giulia.grande@ki.se.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6312-3815
Martina VallettaAging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0139-8287
Debora RizzutoAging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Xin XiaDivision of Neurogeriatrics, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Chengxuan QiuAging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1922-4912
Nicola OrsiniDepartment of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Matilda DaleAffinity Proteomics Stockholm, Science for Life Laboratory, Department of Protein Science, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Solna, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5788-7744
Sarah AnderssonAffinity Proteomics Stockholm, Science for Life Laboratory, Department of Protein Science, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Solna, Sweden.
Claudia FredoliniAffinity Proteomics Stockholm, Science for Life Laboratory, Department of Protein Science, School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health (CBH), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Solna, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7674-2014
Bengt WinbladDivision of Neurogeriatrics, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0011-1179
Erika J LaukkaAging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Laura FratiglioniAging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Davide L VetranoAging Research Center, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3099-4830

Funding

Stiftelsen för Gamla Tjänarinnor (Foundation for Old Servants) 2021-01235Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) 2021-00178Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) 2021-00178 and 2021-03324
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Evidence regarding the clinical validity of blood biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the general population is limited. We estimated the hazard and predictive performance of six AD blood biomarkers for incident all-cause and AD dementia-the ratio of amyloid-β 42 to amyloid-β 40 and levels of tau phosphorylated at T217 (p-tau217), tau phosphorylated at T181 (p-tau181), total tau, neurofilament light chain (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)-in a cohort of 2,148 dementia-free older adults from Sweden, who were followed for up to 16 years. In multi-adjusted Cox regression models, elevated baseline levels of p-tau181, p-tau217, NfL, and GFAP were associated with a significantly increased hazard for all-cause and AD dementia, displaying a non-linear dose-response relationship. Elevated concentrations of p-tau181, p-tau217, NfL, and GFAP demonstrated strong predictive performance (area under the curve ranging from 70.9% to 82.6%) for 10-year all-cause and AD dementia, with negative predictive values exceeding 90% but low positive predictive values (PPVs). Combining p-tau217 with NfL or GFAP further improved prediction, with PPVs reaching 43%. Our findings suggest that these biomarkers have the potential to rule out impending dementia in community settings, but they might need to be combined with other biological or clinical markers to be used as screening tools.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseBiomarkersDementiaAgedAged, 80 and overAmyloid beta-PeptidesFemaleGlial Fibrillary Acidic ProteinHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNeurofilament ProteinsPeptide FragmentsPhosphorylationProportional Hazards ModelsAmyloid beta-PeptidesBiomarkersGlial Fibrillary Acidic Proteinneurofilament protein LNeurofilament ProteinsPeptide Fragmentstau Proteins

Identifiers

PMID40140622
PMCPMC12176656

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.