Evidence mapPaperPMID 40140809Full record

ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2025

A SuperLearner approach for predicting diabetic kidney disease upon the initial diagnosis of T2DM in hospital.

Xiaomeng Lin, Chao Liu, Huaiyu Wang, Xiaohui Fan, Linfeng Li, Jiming Xu, Changlin Li, Yao Wang, Xudong Cai, Xin Peng

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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1 citing paper in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Xiaomeng Lin *Ningbo Institute of Chinese Medicine Research, Ningbo Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, No. 819, Liyuan North Road, Haishu District, Ningbo, 315010, China.
Chao Liu *Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., Beijing, 100083, China.
Huaiyu WangNational Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine Constitution and Preventive Treatment of Diseases, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 100029, China.
Xiaohui FanPharmaceutical Informatics Institute, College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Linfeng LiYidu Cloud Technology Inc., Beijing, 100083, China.
Jiming XuYidu Cloud Technology Inc., Beijing, 100083, China.
Changlin LiDepartment of Nephrology, Ningbo Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Ningbo, 315010, China.
Yao Wang *Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., Beijing, 100083, China.
Xudong Cai *Department of Nephrology, Ningbo Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Ningbo, 315010, China.
Xin Peng *Ningbo Institute of Chinese Medicine Research, Ningbo Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, No. 819, Liyuan North Road, Haishu District, Ningbo, 315010, China. pengx@nit.zju.edu.cn.

Funding

Joint Funds of the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant LBY24H290002Joint Funds of the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant LBZ24H270001Major Joint Projects Supported by the National Administration of TCM and Zhejiang Province GZY-ZI-KJ-23037Ningbo Major Research and Development Plan Project 2022Z135Ningbo public welfare science and technology plan project 2022S083"Pioneer" and "Leading Goose" R&D Program of Zhejiang 2023C03038Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant LY20H270004Zhejiang Traditional Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Plan Project 2024ZL142
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDiabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), with patients typically remaining asymptomatic until reaching an advanced stage. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for DKD in patients with an initial diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using real-world data.

methodsWe retrospectively examined data from 3,291 patients (1740 men, 1551 women) newly diagnosed with T2DM at Ningbo Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (2011-2023). The dataset was randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Forty-six readily available medical characteristics at initial diagnosis of T2DM from the electronic medical records were used to develop prediction models based on linear, non-linear, and SuperLearner approaches. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was used to interpret the best-performing models.

resultsAmong 3291 participants, 563 (17.1%) were diagnosed with DKD during median follow-up of 2.53 years. The SuperLearner model exhibited the highest AUC (0.7138, 95% confidence interval: [0.673, 0.7546]) for the holdout internal validation set in predicting any DKD stage. Top-ranked features were WBC_Cnt*, Neut_Cnt, Hct, and Hb. High WBC_Cnt, low Neut_Cnt, high Hct, and low Hb levels were associated with an increased risk of DKD.

conclusionsWe developed and validated a DKD risk prediction model for patients with newly diagnosed T2DM. Using routinely available clinical measurements, the SuperLearner model could predict DKD during hospital visits. Prediction accuracy and SHAP-based model interpretability may help improve early detection, targeted interventions, and prognosis of patients with DM.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Diabetic NephropathiesAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective Studiesdiabetic kidney diseasemachine learningmodel interpretabilityreal-world datarisk estimationType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID40140809
PMCPMC11948915

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.