ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2025
A SuperLearner approach for predicting diabetic kidney disease upon the initial diagnosis of T2DM in hospital.
Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Hearing preservation and restoration surgery in NF2-related schwannomatosis.Familial cancer · 2026Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDiabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), with patients typically remaining asymptomatic until reaching an advanced stage. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for DKD in patients with an initial diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using real-world data.
methodsWe retrospectively examined data from 3,291 patients (1740 men, 1551 women) newly diagnosed with T2DM at Ningbo Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (2011-2023). The dataset was randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Forty-six readily available medical characteristics at initial diagnosis of T2DM from the electronic medical records were used to develop prediction models based on linear, non-linear, and SuperLearner approaches. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was used to interpret the best-performing models.
resultsAmong 3291 participants, 563 (17.1%) were diagnosed with DKD during median follow-up of 2.53 years. The SuperLearner model exhibited the highest AUC (0.7138, 95% confidence interval: [0.673, 0.7546]) for the holdout internal validation set in predicting any DKD stage. Top-ranked features were WBC_Cnt*, Neut_Cnt, Hct, and Hb. High WBC_Cnt, low Neut_Cnt, high Hct, and low Hb levels were associated with an increased risk of DKD.
conclusionsWe developed and validated a DKD risk prediction model for patients with newly diagnosed T2DM. Using routinely available clinical measurements, the SuperLearner model could predict DKD during hospital visits. Prediction accuracy and SHAP-based model interpretability may help improve early detection, targeted interventions, and prognosis of patients with DM.
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