Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40146475›Full record

ArticleDiscover oncology2025

Analysis of long-term trends and 15-year predictions of smoking-related bladder cancer burden in china across different age and sex groups from 1990 to 2021.

Jieming Zuo, Junhao Chen, Zhiyong Tan, Xingcheng Zhu, Haifeng Wang, Shi Fu, Jiansong Wang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Discover oncology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jieming Zuo *Department of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650106, Yunnan, China.
Junhao Chen *Department of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650106, Yunnan, China.
Zhiyong TanDepartment of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650106, Yunnan, China.
Xingcheng ZhuDepartment of Clinical Laboratory, The Second People's Hospital of Qujing City, Qujing, Yunnan, China.
Haifeng WangDepartment of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650106, Yunnan, China. wanghaifeng@kmmu.edu.cn.
Shi FuDepartment of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650106, Yunnan, China. fushi@kmmu.edu.cn.
Jiansong WangDepartment of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650106, Yunnan, China. wangjiansong@kmmu.edu.cn.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82060464Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects 202001AY070001-163, 202201AU070220, 202201AY070001-113
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTobacco is a significant risk factor for bladder cancer, with notable disparities in smoking rates and cancer prevalence between sex. Our objective is to assess the sex- and age-specific burden of bladder cancer attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict its future trends over the next 15 years using GBD study data.

methodsAll data were extracted from the 2021 GBD study, utilizing metrics such as mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) to describe the burden of smoking-attributable bladder cancer in China. We employed joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis methods to elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of bladder cancer. Frontier analysis was used to visually demonstrate the potential for burden reduction based on the development level of each country or region. We applied the ARIMA model to fit and predict the future burden of smoking-attributable bladder cancer in China for the next 15 years.

resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and DALYs due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer in China significantly increased. However, ASMR and ASDR decreased for both sexs but males experiencing a higher burden. Population aging drove the decline in ASMR and ASDR, despite rising absolute deaths and DALYs. Joinpoint regression yielded average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of - 1.23 for ASMR and - 1.38 for ASDR, with the rate of change being lower in males than in females. The impact of age, period, and cohort on mortality rates varied. There was a slight increase in relative health inequality in the bladder cancer burden among countries of different income levels. By 2036, ASDR and ASMR for smoking-related bladder cancer in China are expected to continue decreasing, with this trend being more pronounced in males.

conclusionOver the past three decades, the number of deaths and DALYs due to smoking-related bladder cancer in China has significantly increased across different sexs and age groups, while ASMR and ASDR have shown a declining trend, reflecting certain public health progress. This trend is especially evident among males and is primarily driven by population aging and demographic effects. The inequality among countries of different income levels has slightly increased. The burden of smoking-related bladder cancer in China is projected to continue declining by 2036, particularly among males. Therefore, precise prevention and intervention strategies targeting different sexs and age groups are essential to further alleviate the public health burden of smoking-related bladder cancer.

Indexed as

ARIMA modelBladder cancerDisability-adjusted life yearsDisease burdenSmoking

Identifiers

PMID40146475
PMCPMC11950460

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.