Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40175970›Full record

ArticleBMC pregnancy and childbirth2025

Development and validation of a prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus risk among women from 8 to 14 weeks of gestation in Western China.

Jiani Zhang, Qi Cao, Chihui Mao, Jinfeng Xu, Yaqian Li, Yi Mu, Guiqiong Huang, Daijuan Chen, Xixi Deng, Tingting Xu and 2 more

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMC pregnancy and childbirth, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Jiani ZhangDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Qi CaoKey Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Chihui MaoDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Jinfeng XuDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Yaqian LiDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Yi MuKey Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Guiqiong HuangDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Daijuan ChenDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Xixi DengDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Tingting XuDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Fan ZhouDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Xiaodong WangDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China. wangxd_scu@sina.com.

Funding

Science Foundation of science and technology program key project of Sichuan Province 2022YF0042
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo develop a clinically applicable and promotable prediction model for assessing the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) within the context of primary healthcare institutions.

methodsThe construction and the internal validation of the prediction model involved a cohort of 6,216 pregnant women observed from January 2019 to June 2019 in a Class A tertiary hospital in western China. External validation was subsequently conducted with 443 pregnant women from October 2020 to June 2021. Core characteristics were identified and the model was established using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Internal validation was performed using the Bootstrap method. Model evaluation included discrimination and calibration tests, decision curve analysis (DCA), and the clinical impact curve. Visualization of the model was achieved through a static nomogram and a risk-scoring model.

resultsThe simplified prediction model possessed seven variables, including age, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), history of GDM, family history of diabetes, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and urine glucose. This model exhibited a predictive accuracy, as reflected by a C-index of 0.736 (95% CI: 0.720 ~ 0.753) in the training set. The C-indexes were 0.735 and 0.694 in the internal and external testing set. Well-fitted calibration curves, the DCA curve, and the clinical impact curve demonstrated the feasibility of the simplified prediction model. For enhanced clinical application, the static nomogram and the risk-scoring model were employed to visualize the model.

conclusionsThis study developed a prediction model for assessing the risk of GDM among women from 8 to 14 weeks of gestation in western China. The model demonstrated moderate discriminatory ability, well-fitted calibration, and convenient visualization, suggesting its suitability for implementation and widespread adoption, particularly within the context of primary healthcare institutions.

Indexed as

Diabetes, GestationalAdultBlood GlucoseBody Mass IndexChinaFemaleGestational AgeHumansNomogramsPregnancyPregnancy Trimester, FirstRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsBlood GlucoseClinical prediction modelGestational diabetes mellitusNomogramScreeningWomen

Identifiers

PMID40175970
PMCPMC11967024

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.