Global, regional and country burden of high BMI-related liver cancer among individuals aged above 70: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2044.

Background: Liver cancer (LC) is a major global health concern, being the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Older adults are more susceptible, though mortality rates for those over 70 are declining. However, disability from non-communicable diseases remains high. High body mass index (BMI) is a notable risk factor for LC, with high BMI-related liver cancer (HB-LC) being a major concern. Methods: This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 dataset to assess the impact of HB-LC on individuals aged 70 and older from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts extending to 2044. Disease burden across socio-demographic index (SDI) regions was evaluated using age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to analyze DALY trends and demographic influences, and decomposition analysis assessed the effects of population aging, growth, and epidemiological shifts. Results: Our findings revealed significant geographical disparities in HB-LC mortality, with East Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of West Africa showing the highest rates. Global HB-LC DALYs increased by 2.49% annually, with low SDI regions experiencing recent acceleration. Gender disparity persisted, with males facing a steeper rise in HB-LC burden. Age-related DALY rates peaked in the 80-89 age groups, showing complex patterns across SDI regions. Epidemiological changes primarily drove the increased HB-LC burden in high SDI regions, while population growth was more significant in low SDI regions. Conclusion: This data analysis underscores necessity for region-specific public health strategies and demographic-focused interventions, enhancing surveillance and targeting efforts to mitigate the increasing burden of HB-LC among the older adults.