ArticleBMC infectious diseases2025
Epidemiological trends of hepatitis C incidence and death in Mainland China between 2004 and 2018 and its predictions to 2030.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- The three-decade trajectory of hepatitis C burden among women of reproductive age in China: a retrospective and predictive study.Virology journal · 2026Article
- Hospital-based micro-elimination of hepatitis C virus: improving timely case identification and linkage to care in a tertiary hospital.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Epidemiological analysis and temporal trends of interstitial lung diseases in global, Chinese, and Belt and Road Initiative countries: 1990-2021.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionThis study aimed to evaluate the epidemiological trends and spatial-temporal distribution of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in mainland China.
methodsHCV monthly incidence surveillance data from 2004 to 2018 was mainly available from the Public Health Sciences Data Center of China. Five models (Bayesian age-period-cohort, BAPC; Auto-regressive integrated moving average, Auto_arima; Exponential smoothing, ETS; Prophet; Earth) were used to forecast the incidence. Temporal-spatial scanning analysis was conducted to visualize the grading of hepatitis C incidence in mainland China.
resultsThis study observed 180 months of data from January 2004 and December 2018. A total of 2,278,280 hepatitis C cases and 1771 deaths were reported, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 11.24/100,000. The BAPC model indicated that the indexes (mean absolute error, MAE; mean absolute percentage error, MAPE; mean squared error, MSE; root mean square error, RMSE) in the BAPC model were better than those of the other models (4.33 × 10
conclusionsIn summary, this study showed that the incidence of HCV in mainland China continued to be high, and BAPC model suggested that this trend will continue until at least 2030. In order to effectively control the HCV epidemic, it was necessary to strengthen blood safety management, expand screening for high-risk population, improve public awareness of HCV, and provide timely and effective antiviral treatment in potentially high-risk areas.
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Registered trials
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