Balancing Efficiency and Equity in Population-Wide CKD Screening.

Importance: In the era of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, population-wide screening for chronic kidney disease (CKD) may provide good value, yet implications across racial and ethnic groups are unknown. Objective: To evaluate the health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of population-wide CKD screening for 4 racial and ethnic groups. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cost-effectiveness analysis, a decision-analytic Markov model was separately calibrated to simulate CKD progression among simulated cohorts of US Hispanic adults, non-Hispanic Black adults, non-Hispanic White adults, and adults who belong to additional racial and ethnic groups (ie, Asian and multiracial individuals and those self-reporting other race and ethnicity). Effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors was derived from the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease trial. Mortality, quality-of-life weights, and cost estimates were obtained from published cohort studies, randomized clinical trials, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data. Analyses were conducted from January 1, 2023, to November 6, 2024. Exposures: One-time or periodic (every 10 or 5 years) screening for albuminuria, initiated between age 35 and 75 years, with and without addition of SGLT2 inhibitors to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin-receptor blocker therapy for CKD. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime cumulative incidence of kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT); discounted life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), lifetime health care costs (in 2024 US dollars), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Under the status quo, non-Hispanic Black adults aged 35 years had the highest lifetime incidence of kidney failure requiring KRT (6.2% [95% UI, 2.8%-10.6%]) compared with Hispanic adults (3.6% [95% UI, 1.1%-6.7%]), non-Hispanic White adults (2.3% [95% UI, 0.4%-5.2%]), and adults from additional racial and ethnic groups (3.3% [95% UI, 1.2%-6.5%]). Screening every 5 years from ages 55 to 75 years combined with SGLT2 inhibitors reduced incidence of KRT and increased LYs across all racial and ethnic groups, with the largest average changes observed for non-Hispanic Black adults (0.8-percentage point decrease and 0.19-year increase). Every 5-year screening from age 55 to 75 years cost $99 100/QALY gained for the overall population and less than $150 000/QALY gained across racial and ethnic groups, with the lowest cost observed for non-Hispanic Black adults ($73 400/QALY gained). Screening starting at age 35 years was only cost-effective for non-Hispanic Black adults ($115 000/QALY gained). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cost-effectiveness analysis, population-wide screening for CKD from ages 55 to 75 years was projected to improve population health, was cost-effective, and reduced disparities across 4 racial and ethnic groups. Starting population-wide screening at younger ages was projected to further benefit non-Hispanic Black adults.