ArticlePharmacoEconomics - open2025
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Molnupiravir Versus Best Supportive Care for the Treatment of Outpatient COVID-19 in High-Risk Older Adults in Japan.
Article in PharmacoEconomics - open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Value of Emerging and Existing Pre-prophylaxis and Therapeutic Options for COVID-19 in Transplant Recipients: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2026Pooled it
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesThis analysis aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of molnupiravir versus best supportive care for the treatment of older adult patients (aged ≥ 65 years) in Japan with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at risk of disease progression leading to hospitalization, predominantly using input data derived from the Omicron era of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic.
methodsA decision-analytic model was developed, comprising a decision-tree model for the acute COVID-19 phase (30 days), followed by a lifetime Markov model. Inputs used to parametrize the model were derived from a database study conducted in Japan and a published systematic literature review of real-world studies, and from ad-hoc literature searches and other research (for disease progression, cost, and utility estimates). This analysis modelled death averted due to COVID-19 hospitalization as an indirect effect of molnupiravir (through preventing hospitalization). Costs were expressed in 2022 Japanese yen (¥; JPY), from the perspective of payers (the base case) or society (in a scenario analysis). Costs and QALYs were discounted at 2% per year. Cost effectiveness of molnupiravir versus best supportive care was primarily compared to a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of ¥5,000,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.
resultsTreatment with molnupiravir is associated with a QALY gain of 0.018 and an incremental cost of ¥81,472 over best supportive care and is cost effective (with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] of ¥4,638,477) versus best supportive care based on the predefined WTP threshold of ¥5,000,000 per QALY gained. Molnupiravir leads to a reduction in the proportion of patients who die due to COVID-19 hospitalization (0.09% with molnupiravir vs 0.29% with best supportive care). Molnupiravir is also associated with lower costs associated with COVID-19 hospitalizations compared with best supportive care (¥22,527 vs ¥27,472). In a deterministic sensitivity analysis, the top five most sensitive parameters were baseline hospitalization rate, mortality benefit of molnupiravir, mortality rate in general ward, discount rate, and mortality rate in intensive care unit. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, at the predefined WTP threshold of ¥5,000,000 per QALY gained, molnupiravir had an 80% probability of being cost effective versus best supportive care.
conclusionsMolnupiravir is a cost-effective treatment option for the treatment of older adult outpatients (age ≥ 65 years) with symptomatic COVID-19 in Japan, relative to best supportive care.
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.