Evidence mapPaperPMID 40269746Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2025

Interpretable machine learning model for predicting delirium in patients with sepsis: a study based on the MIMIC data.

Jing Fu, Aifeng He, Lulu Wang, Xia Li, Jiangquan Yu, Ruiqiang Zheng

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jing Fu *Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University/Clinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China.
Aifeng He *Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University/Clinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China.
Lulu WangHuai 'an Second People's Hospital, Huaian, Jiangsu Province, China.
Xia LiHuai 'an Second People's Hospital, Huaian, Jiangsu Province, China.
Jiangquan Yu *Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University/Clinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. yujiangquan2021@163.com.
Ruiqiang Zheng *Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University/Clinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. zhengruiqiang2021@163.com.

Funding

the Jiangsu Vocational College of Medicine's School-Local Collaborative Innovation Research Project 202491001the Yancheng Science and Technology Bureau YCBE202365
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe aim of this study was to construct interpretable machine learning models to predict the risk of developing delirium in patients with sepsis and to explore the impact of delirium on the 28-day survival rate of patients.

methodsWe enrolled 10,321 patients with sepsis older than eighteen years from the MIMIC-IV (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care) database. Sepsis is defined as the presence or suspected presence of infection, along with a SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) score of ≥ 2. Four machine learning models, namely XGBoost (extreme gradient Boost), SVM (support vector machine), Logistic (logistic regression) and RF (random forest), were established for prediction, and the prediction model was constructed.

resultsA total of 10,321 sepsis patients were included, among whom 4,691 (45.45%) developed delirium. The 28-day mortality rate was markedly elevated in the delirium group (log-rank P < 0.001). The XGBoost model has the best performance. Finally, 5 variables were selected to draw a nomogram: hypertension, SOFA score, chlorine, Hb (hemoglobin), creatinine. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the predictive delirium model showed better predictive efficiency, with an AUC of 0.767 (95%CI (confidence interval): 0.726-0.798).

conclusionThe nomogram built on the XGBoost model provides clinicians with an easy tool to quickly assess the risk of developing delirium in patients with sepsis. It provides a new idea and direction for the best model to predict delirium in patients with sepsis, so as to promote the development of delirium related research.

Indexed as

DeliriumMachine LearningSepsisAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedOrgan Dysfunction ScoresRisk FactorsROC CurveDeliriumMachine learningMIMIC-IV databaseNomogramSepsis

Identifiers

PMID40269746
PMCPMC12016194

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.