Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40293249›Full record

ArticlemSystems2025

Multi-trajectories of BMI, waist circumference, gut microbiota, and incident dyslipidemia: a 27-year prospective study.

Xiaofan Zhang, Fangxu Guan, Wanglong Gou, Qi Wang, Shufa Du, Chang Su, Jiguo Zhang, Ju-Sheng Zheng, Huijun Wang, Bing Zhang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in mSystems, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Nutrients · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Xiaofan Zhang *National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Fangxu Guan *National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Wanglong Gou *Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Multi-Omics in Infection and Immunity, Center for Infectious Disease Research, School of Medicine, Westlake University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Qi WangChaoyang District of Beijing Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Shufa DuDepartment of Nutrition and Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Chang SuNational Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Jiguo ZhangNational Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Ju-Sheng ZhengZhejiang Key Laboratory of Multi-Omics in Infection and Immunity, Center for Infectious Disease Research, School of Medicine, Westlake University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.ORCID 0000-0001-6560-4890
Huijun WangNational Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-8064-4564
Bing ZhangNational Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-8399-9061

Funding

UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CLINICAL NUTRITION RESEARCH UNITP30DK056350 · NIDDK · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Elizabeth J Mayer-Davis · 1999 to 2026
$31.6M
MONITORING SOCIAL CHANGE: HEALTH, REPRODUCTION, AGINGR01HD030880 · NICHD · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI ADAIR, LINDA S, POPKIN, BARRY M · 1994 to 2024
$27.0M
Carolina Population CenterR24HD050924 · NICHD · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI MORGAN, SAMUEL PHILIP · 2005 to 2014
$10.0M
CHILD HEALTH EFFECTS OF RAPID SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGER01HD038700 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI POPKIN, BARRY M · 2000 to 2004
$1.5M
National Key Research and Development Program of China 2021YFE0114200National Natural Science Foundation of China 82373681NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD030880NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD038700NICHD NIH HHS R24 HD050924NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK056350The Pioneer and leading goose research and development of Zhejiang 2024SSYS0032
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Evidence is insufficient to establish a longitudinal association between combined trajectories of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and dyslipidemia. This study investigated the associations between multi-trajectories of BMI and WC over 24 years and the subsequent risk of dyslipidemia in a large cohort of 10,678 Chinese adults from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Utilizing a group-based trajectory model, we identified four distinct trajectories: normal, normal-increasing, overweight-increasing, and obesity-increasing. Our results indicated that ascending trajectories of BMI and WC are significantly associated with increased odds of dyslipidemia, particularly in males, with odds ratios (OR) of 2.10, 2.69, and 3.56 for the normal-increasing, overweight-increasing, and obesity-increasing groups, respectively. Among females, the normal-increasing group exhibited a significant increased risk (OR: 1.54). Furthermore, we explored the gut microbiota associated with these trajectories, identifying 3, 8, and 4 bacterial genera linked to increasing BMI and WC in males, alongside two genera in females with the normal-increasing trajectory. We identified a total of 23, 25, and 10 differential metabolites significantly associated with these genera, except for Group 2 in males. The inclusion of relevant microbiome and metabolite data improved the model's predictive capacity for the risk of dyslipidemia, with ROC values increasing from 0.655 to 0.875. Our findings underscore the critical implications of continuous weight gain on metabolic health and suggest that gut microbiota may play a pivotal role in understanding these associations.IMPORTANCEEmerging evidence suggests a close connection between the gut microbiome and both human obesity and dyslipidemia, suggesting that the gut microbiome may play an important role in the obesity-dyslipidemia relationship. In this study, we observed several characteristic genera, including

Indexed as

Body Mass IndexDyslipidemiasGastrointestinal MicrobiomeWaist CircumferenceAdultChinaFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedObesityProspective Studiesbody mass indexdyslipidemiagut microbiotaprospective studywaist circumference

Identifiers

PMID40293249
PMCPMC12090771

What Socratic holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.